Ekonomické zpravodajství

Higher-than-expected inflation

4 d - Josef Brynda

The latest inflation data for the USA has just been released. The actual figures were higher than expected, which led to a nearly 1% strengthening of the USD compared to today's local high. The data suggests that the Federal Reserve (FED) may continue tightening monetary policy, as accelerating inflation poses a risk to long-term price stability. At the same time, with the US imposing tariffs that create pro-inflationary pressures, the FED may not be in a hurry to take further action.

This trend could lead to parity between EUR and USD, which is no longer an entirely unrealistic target. Such a development could be disadvantageous for American exporters. Additionally, rising inflation could negatively impact US stock markets, which may report lower results this year due to the potential for stricter policies from the central bank. These conditions could limit opportunities for domestic companies, potentially driving investors towards safer assets.

Given these findings, it will be crucial to watch Jerome Powell’s speech today, as it may provide insight into the future direction of monetary policy, with expectations leaning towards a more hawkish tone.

Overall, both sentiment and fundamental analysis suggest that under these conditions, the USD should remain strong, while the stock market could be paralyzed by these data.


Jerome Powell before Congress.

4 d - Josef Brynda

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed), Jerome Powell, appeared before Congress this week as part of his semiannual testimony on monetary policy. On Tuesday, February 11, he spoke before the Senate Banking Committee, and today, Wednesday, February 12, he continues his testimony before the House Financial Services Committee.

Powell described the U.S. economy as "generally strong," highlighting a robust labor market and stable GDP growth. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In response, the chairman struck a more hawkish tone, which could weigh on potential stock market growth next year. As a result, capital is flowing into safe-haven assets, reflected in record-high gold prices and a strong U.S. dollar.

Today’s focus will be on Powell’s next speech, which will be heavily influenced by the latest inflation data set to be released. Higher-than-expected inflation could further reinforce his hawkish stance on delaying rate cuts.

Daily Analysis 2025/02/11

5 d - Josef Brynda

Latest news

USD

  • The US dollar remains stable ahead of the anticipated testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
  • The 25% tariff increase on steel and aluminum by President Trump has caused international tension and threats of retaliatory measures from the EU.
  • The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to be released this week, may influence expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy.
  • Markets remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs between the US and Canada.
  • The US dollar is strengthening against weaker Asian currencies, such as the Indian rupee, which has hit a record low.
  • The ongoing rise in US Treasury yields supports the dollar.
  • The Trump administration has signaled the possibility of additional trade restrictions, increasing market uncertainty.
  • The Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates, putting further pressure on emerging market currencies against the USD.
  • The dollar benefits from the weakening Chinese economy, which is impacting global trade flows.
  • Investors are monitoring geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine and potential impacts on the dollar.

CAD

  • The CAD remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US-Canadian trade tariffs, which may take effect in 30 days.
  • Stagnating oil prices limit the growth potential of the CAD as a commodity currency dependent on oil exports.
  • Unemployment in Canada dropped to 6.6% due to the creation of 76,000 new jobs in January. However, the strong labor market has not yet strengthened the CAD due to broader economic uncertainties.
  • The increase in the capital gains tax rate in Canada from 50% to 67% starting in June 2025 may lead to the sale of Canadian assets and further weakening of the currency.
  • Major asset managers are increasing short positions in the futures market, and investors are paying higher premiums for options to hedge against further weakening of the CAD.

EUR

  • The European Union is planning tough retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminum.
  • Eurozone bond yields are rising slightly, indicating expectations of higher interest rates.
  • The European Commission announced a $51.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence, which could support the eurozone economy.
  • The ECB has not yet announced any changes to monetary policy, causing volatility in the euro against the dollar.
  • The EUR/GBP pair shows signs of strengthening due to the weakness of the British pound after the Bank of England's recent rate cuts.
  • The German economy is showing signs of slowing down, which may affect the ECB's future decisions.
  • The ECB is expected to respond to US tariffs by increasing support for European exporters.
  • Political tensions in the EU, related to Trump's "peace plan" proposal for Ukraine, could impact investor confidence in the eurozone.
  • European stock markets remain cautious due to global trade uncertainties.
  • The French government has launched an investigation into algorithmic bias in tech companies, which could affect the EU's tech sector.

GBP

  • The Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is discussing further potential cuts due to weak demand in the British economy.
  • Investors are anticipating the release of key economic indicators, including GDP and inflation data.
  • Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann has shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance, further weakening confidence in the pound.
  • Switzerland recently cut rates by 50 basis points, which may prompt similar actions in Britain and other European countries.
  • The situation in Ukraine and tensions between Western countries and Russia could indirectly impact the British economy and currency.

AUD

  • The Australian dollar is under pressure due to the weak Chinese economy, a key trading partner for Australia.
  • The increase in US tariffs on steel and aluminum has negatively affected Australian exports of these commodities.
  • AUD/USD is struggling to break resistance at 0.63, but the market remains volatile.
  • The weak performance of the Chinese economy reduces demand for Australian resources, weakening the AUD.
  • Australia's economy is expected to stagnate due to lower infrastructure investments and a weak domestic labor market.
  • The recent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia contribute to the AUD's weakness against major currencies.
  • Trade tensions between the US and China further weaken the Australian dollar, a commodity currency dependent on exports to China.
  • The market anticipates a further decline in AUD/USD towards 0.62 amid continued pressure on the Chinese economy.
  • Investors are watching iron ore prices, a key Australian export, and their influence on the AUD.
  • Political uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region contributes to investor caution towards the AUD.

NZD

  • The New Zealand dollar is under pressure due to the weak performance of the Chinese economy, a significant trading partner.
  • New Zealand's economic growth is expected to stagnate due to lower demand for dairy products in Asia.
  • The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has signaled the possibility of further interest rate cuts due to weak GDP growth.
  • NZD/USD remains volatile due to trade disputes between the US and China, which impact global commodity markets.
  • The weak performance of New Zealand's agricultural sector adds to uncertainty about the NZD's future direction.

News summary

The US dollar remains strong, supported by rising Treasury yields and a weakening Chinese economy, while markets await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and key CPI data. Trade tensions with Canada and geopolitical risks around Ukraine add volatility but favor USD strength in the short term.The Canadian dollar struggles due to stagnant oil prices and uncertainty over US-Canadian tariffs. Despite a strong labor market, broader economic concerns and a planned capital gains tax hike weigh on CAD, with potential for further depreciation.The euro faces volatility as Eurozone bond yields rise slightly, driven by market dynamics rather than rate hike expectations, as the ECB continues cutting rates. However, Germany’s slowing economy and political tensions related to US tariffs and Ukraine weigh on investor confidence, limiting euro upside potential. The British pound remains under pressure following a BoE rate cut, with further easing likely amid weak domestic demand and dovish signals from policymakers. Geopolitical risks and dovish sentiment from policymakers add to GBP's bearish outlook.The Australian dollar is weighed down by weak Chinese demand for resources, trade tensions, and recent RBA rate cuts. AUD/USD remains under pressure near key support levels, with risks skewed to the downside.The New Zealand dollar is similarly pressured by weak Chinese demand for dairy products and the potential for further RBNZ rate cuts as growth stagnates. Trade disputes between the US and China add to NZD's vulnerability.

Overall, USD strength is likely to dominate in the near term, while commodity-linked currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) face downside risks. EUR and GBP remain vulnerable to economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Srovnání výsledků v roce 2024

5 d - Josef Brynda

Náš fond dosáhl v roce 2024 zhodnocení 15,55 %, čímž se zařadil mezi nejvýkonnější fondy na trhu. Rok 2024 přinesl na finančních trzích volatilní období, ať už kvůli zahajení cyklu snižování sazeb americkou centrální bankou nebo volbami v USA.

Při porovnání s konkurencí si náš fond vedl nadprůměrně. Konzervativní a dluhopisové fondy vykázaly nižší výnosy (2–5 %), smíšené fondy dosahovaly kolem 7,5 %, zatímco akciové fondy se pohybovaly mezi v průměru 14,2 % s mediánem 12,65 %. Akciím se však letos dařilo nadprůměrně. V roce 2024 zaznamenal index S&P 500 významný růst, když dosáhl celkového výnosu přibližně 25 %, výsledek výrazně převyšuje dlouhodobý průměrný výnos indexu, který se pohybuje kolem 9,8%.

Do budoucna může být růst akciových trhů méně výrazný, pokud bude FED snižovat sazby pomaleji, kvůli obavám z vyšší inflace v letošním roce. Naše strategie je však navržena tak, aby přinášela stabilní výnosy i v méně příznivých tržních podmínkách. Těšíme se na další příležitosti v roce 2025!

Typ fondu Penzijní společnost Zkrácený název fondu Výnos 2024   Typ fondu Penzijní společnost Zkrácený název fondu Výnos 2024
Peněžní KB Peněžní 4,5 %   Smíšený Allianz Vyvážený 8,9 %
Konzervativní Allianz Konzervativní 4,0 %   Smíšený ČS Vyvážený 6,0 %
Konzervativní Conseq Konzervativní 3,7 %   Smíšený ČSOB Vyvážený 7,5 %
Konzervativní ČS Konzervativní 3,2 %   Smíšený Generali Vyvážený 7,7 %
Konzervativní ČSOB Konzervativní 2,5 %   Smíšený KB Vyvážený 7,5 %
Konzervativní Generali Konzervativní 3,4 %   Smíšený NN Vyvážený 10,7 %
Konzervativní KB Konzervativní 3,8 %   Smíšený UNIQA Vyvážený 9,4 %
Konzervativní NN Konzervativní 3,0 %   Akciový Allianz Dynamický 14,7 %
Konzervativní Rentea Konzervativní 2,9 %   Akciový Conseq Globální akciový 12,4 %
Konzervativní UNIQA Konzervativní 3,5 %   Akciový ČS Dynamický 9,6 %
Dluhopisový Conseq Dluhopisový 5,4 %   Akciový ČSOB Dynamický 16,1 %
Dluhopisový Conseq Target Bond 2035 0,0 %   Akciový ČSOB Dyn. zodpovědný 9,2 %
Dluhopisový ČS Etický 2,5 %   Akciový Generali Dynamický 12,9 %
Dluhopisový ČSOB Garantovaný 2,6 %   Akciový KB Akciový 9,4 %
Dluhopisový ČSOB Pro penzi 4,4 %   Akciový NN Růstový 19,0 %
Dluhopisový Generali Spořicí 3,3 %   Akciový Rentea Akciový 8,2 %
Dluhopisový KB Dluhopisový 2,2 %   Akciový UNIQA Akciový 30,3 %
Dluhopisový Rentea Dluhopisový 2,1 %          
Dluhopisový UNIQA Dluhopisový 2,1 %