Ekonomické zpravodajství

Daily Analysis 2025/04/01

1 d - Josef Brynda

Latest news

USD

  • The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note hovered around 4.2% on Tuesday after falling for two consecutive sessions, as President Donald Trump's trade escalations clouded the economic outlook, boosting demand for safe haven assets.
  • The US dollar index hovered around 104 on Tuesday, trading sideways as investors awaited the implementation of President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs to gain clarity on the economic outlook.
  • The new US tariffs on trading partners are expected to be structural and long-lasting.
  • Markets are watching upcoming U.S. economic data (e.g., JOLTS Job Openings and ISM Manufacturing PMI and friday NFP), which could influence demand for the USD.
  • There is a high chance that the risk-off sentiment will continue to support the USD.

CAD

  • The Canadian dollar weakened toward 1.44 per USD, retreating from a one-month high of 1.426 on March 26th, as mounting trade tensions and the looming threat of U.S. tariffs disrupt key export sectors such as auto parts, raw materials, and lumber.
  • The USD/CAD exchange rate is hovering around 1.4400. Rising oil prices are supporting the Canadian dollar, while traders await tariff announcements from President Trump.
  • However, political uncertainty in Canada ahead of the April 28 elections is weakening the CAD.
  • Due to trade tariffs and economic slowdown, it is expected that the Bank of Canada might continue easing monetary policy during the first half of 2025.
  • The risk of an escalating trade war between the U.S. and Canada adds to uncertainty regarding the CAD. 

EUR

  • German Prices Slow More Than Expected.
  • Eurozone February unemployment rate 6.1% vs 6.2% expected.
  • The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI registered 48.6 in March 2025, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 48.7 but up from February's final reading of 47.6.
  • Annual inflation in the Euro Area eased to 2.2% in March 2025, the lowest rate since November 2024 and slightly below market expectations of 2.3%, a preliminary estimate showed.
  • With inflationary pressures cooling and global trade tensions escalating, expectations grew that the European Central Bank could cut interest rates by 65 basis points this year.

GBP

  • The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for March 2025 was revised up to 44.9 from an initial estimate of 44.6.
  • UK stocks rebounded alongside European markets after a tariff-driven selloff, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.7% after a 0.9% drop the previous day.
  • The Nationwide House Price Index in the UK rose 3.9% year-on-year in March 2025, matching the pace of February.
  • The UK’s 10-year gilt yield dropped to 4.667%, its lowest in over a week, following global bond market movements in response to anticipated U.S. President Trump's trade tariffs.
  • Prime Minister Keir Starmer held "productive talks" with Trump to discuss the upcoming tariffs and potential UK exemptions, with negotiations expected to continue.
  • Investors are betting on central bank rate cuts, predicting that the tariffs could dampen global economic growth. 
  • Traders now expect a 55-basis-point cut from the Bank of England by 2025.
  • Despite this, UK gilt yields have increased by nine basis points overall in March.

AUD

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep interest rates unchanged due to uncertainty around tariffs and expectations for further inflation developments.
  • The Australian dollar is weakened by Chinese trade activity and negative sentiment surrounding tariffs; further declines toward 0.620 are expected.
  • The Reserve Bank has kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.1 per cent in April, as had been widely forecast.
  • The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release its next quarterly inflation update on April 30, ahead of the RBA's next meeting in mid-May.

NZD

  • New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index closed 0.4% higher at 12,313 on Tuesday, following three straight sessions of decline, driven by gains in health and communications shares.
  • However, upside was limited as investors remained cautious ahead of the US reciprocal tariffs announcement scheduled for Wednesday.
  • NZD’s performance in the coming days will depend on the outcome of the U.S. tariff review.

News summary

A major day is approaching on February 2, with expectations that the U.S. will impose reciprocal tariffs on many countries. These tariffs are expected to be permanent, which could bring some stability to the market as it would create a more predictable environment to which the market is highly sensitive.

Regarding currencies, our analytical center anticipates that the risk-off sentiment has not yet had its final say. As a result, the dollar could strengthen on the day of the announcement, with the EUR/USD pair expected to move within the 1.07–1.065 range. Additionally, a key factor influencing the future direction of the dollar this week will be labor market data, PMI indices, and, most notably, the non-farm payrolls report set for release on Friday, which typically has a significant impact on the markets.

Today's reports from the Eurozone indicate that unemployment remains at historically low levels, hovering around 6%, which is still 2% higher than in the United States. Speculation had arisen regarding a potential pause in the Eurozone’s rate-cutting cycle, but today's inflation data—at its lowest level since 2022—suggests that the ECB will have room for further cuts at its next meeting. This is unlikely to provide much support for the euro in the near future. Overall, the ECB is expected to cut rates by 65 basis points this year. A crucial factor to watch will be the sentiment regarding military spending in Europe, as upcoming bond issuances and expected yields could attract investors and, in turn, provide some support to the euro.

The British pound has recently reached strong levels against the U.S. dollar, though it remains unclear how the newly announced tariffs will affect the UK. However, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak stated that he had a "very good talk" with President Trump, which could favor the pound over the euro in the short term. Meanwhile, today's manufacturing data showed that the UK is still grappling with contraction in this sector—similar to the European Union. A key indicator moving forward will be how tariffs impact individual countries and how they manage increasing defense expenditures. The UK is also projected to cut rates by 55 basis points this year, and this interest rate divergence between the EU and Britain could further work in the UK's favor.

AUD, NZD, and CAD have remained weak against the U.S. dollar over the long term. Canada faces ongoing uncertainty regarding upcoming elections, economic data, and U.S. tariffs, which are unprecedented and, in many cases, quite severe. This could continue to put pressure on the Canadian dollar. However, rising oil prices could provide some support, as the Canadian currency is often correlated with oil prices. Given the economic uncertainty and planned tariffs, it is expected that the Bank of Canada will maintain an accommodative monetary policy, further increasing the interest rate divergence between Canada and the U.S.

AUD and NZD will be heavily dependent on China’s response to tariff announcements. Economic uncertainty is not providing much support for these currencies, although they have recently seen a short-term rebound against the dollar. The key factor will be the development of commodity prices, as these currencies are closely tied to them. We anticipate the U.S. dollar's continued dominance over these currencies, with tomorrow’s statement from Donald Trump on reciprocal tariffs being a crucial event that the market is eagerly awaiting.

Is the fear of recession unjustified?

7 d - Josef Brynda

As we mentioned earlier, fears of a recession in the U.S. appear to be somewhat overblown. Today's data showed that durable goods orders are near record highs this year, indicating strong consumer and business demand. At the same time, the labor market remains stable and resilient.

A key factor in confirming this positive trend will be tomorrow’s GDP data, which could provide a clearer picture of the overall health of the U.S. economy. Another supportive signal comes from Donald Trump's statement regarding reciprocal tariffs, which are set to be more specifically targeted at selected segments on April 2. This move could help ease concerns about escalating trade disputes and, in turn, reduce fears of a recession.

Overall, despite some uncertainties, economic data continues to point to solid fundamentals that should prevent a significant slowdown in economic growth.

Daily Analysis 2025/03/24

9 d - Josef Brynda

Latest news

USD

  • Stock futures in the US were higher on Monday, with contracts on the three major averages rising nearly 1%, as traders hope the new US tariffs set to take effect on April 2nd could be softer and more targeted than initially anticipated.
  • Reports emerged that President Donald Trump’s coming wave of tariffs is poised to be more targeted than the barrage he has occasionally threatened.
  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.8 in March 2025 from 52.7 in February, missing market expectations of 51.8, a preliminary estimate showed.
  • The S&P Global US Composite PMI rose to 53.5 in March 2025, from February's 10-month low of 51.6, a flash estimate showed. This indicated an acceleration in the US private sector and the strongest since December 2024.
  • The S&P Global US Services PMI rose to 54.3 in March 2025, a three-month high, from 51 in February, surpassing market expectations of 50.8, preliminary data showed.

CAD

  • Canada's CFIB Business Barometer long-term index, which gauges 12-month forward expectations for business performance, plummeted 24.8 points to a record low of 25.0 in March 2025—falling below levels seen during the 2020 pandemic, the 2008 financial crisis, and the 9/11 attacks.
  • Manufacturing sales in Canada are expected to have declined by 0.2% month-over-month in February 2025, following a 1.7% rise in January, according to preliminary estimates.
  • The Canadian Prime Minister has announced snap elections. "We will not yield to Trump," he said.

EUR

  • Germany Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3 in March 2025 from 46.5 in February, exceeding forecasts of 47, according to preliminary estimates.
  • Eurozone Composite PMI edged up to 50.4 in March from 50.2 in February, falling short of market expectations of 50.8, a preliminary estimate showed.
  • Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.7 in March 2025, the highest in 26 months, up from 47.6 in February and exceeding forecasts of 48.2, preliminary data showed.
  • Eurozone Services PMI fell to 50.4 in March 2025 from 50.6 in February, missing the expected 51, according to preliminary estimates.
  • ECB officials (Cipollone and Stournaras) signal an upcoming interest rate cut, noting that inflation is slowing faster than anticipated.
  • ECB President Lagarde warns of weaker economic growth, but reassures that potential EU retaliation against U.S. tariffs is unlikely to pose inflationary risks.

GBP

  • The British pound rose to $1.295, moving closer to an over four-month high of $1.3 hit last week.
  • The UK’s 10-year gilt yield stayed around 4.7%, close to a ten-week high, ahead of Finance Minister Rachel Reeves' spring budget update.
  • A recent PMI survey showed a pickup in business activity within the UK's large services sector, offering some relief to Reeves before her upcoming speech on the economy.
  • However, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to downgrade the UK’s growth forecast for the year, which, combined with higher borrowing costs, may force Reeves to scale back her planned spending increases.
  • Bank of England kept interest rates steady last week, with traders now pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bps rate cut in May.

AUD

  • Iron ore prices climbed toward CNY 780 per tonne in March, recovering from a ten-week low as stronger steel demand in China offset concerns over production cuts.
  • New business rose faster as improvements in economic conditions and successful business development efforts spurred higher demand although export orders declined amidst weather disruptions and subdued external conditions.
  • The Australian dollar climbed toward $0.63 on Monday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as upbeat private sector activity data boosted market sentiment.
  • Australia will unveil its 2025 federal budget on Tuesday, March 25, with Treasurer Jim Chalmers emphasizing cost-of-living relief and economic resilience amid global uncertainty.
  • The budget also accelerates A$1 billion in defense spending as U.S. allies boost military investments.

NZD

  • Iron ore prices climbed toward CNY 780 per tonne in March, recovering from a ten-week low as stronger steel demand in China offset concerns over production cuts.
  • New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 index edged up 0.1% to close around 12,128 on Monday, as concerns over looming US reciprocal tariffs limited gains in distribution services and utilities stocks.
  • The New Zealand dollar extended its decline to around $0.573 on Monday, hovering at a one-week low, as concerns over the looming April 2 deadline for US reciprocal tariffs weighed on the export-reliant currency.
  • Domestically, last week's data confirmed the economy had exited recession, but expectations of further RBNZ rate cuts this year remained unchanged.

News summary

The US economy showed mixed signals today. On one hand, higher-than-expected PMI in services provided significant support for the dollar, as did expansion in the private sector. However, the manufacturing sector is just below the 50 mark (49.8), indicating contraction. Given the previous manufacturing PMI results, this level could potentially be a trend. Combined with other data, such as labor market figures and CPI, it appears the dollar may show strength in the coming days. Attention will also turn to Thursday's GDP release and labor market data. Additionally, President Trump's shift toward more specific and targeted reciprocal tariffs seems to provide further support to the dollar, as tariffs, essentially taxes, tend to slow economic growth.

In the Eurozone, Germany's Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.3, and the overall Eurozone Manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.7, the highest level in 26 months, though still in contraction. On the other hand, the Services PMI fell to 50.4, but remained in expansion. The ECB signaled the possibility of an interest rate cut due to slowing inflation. ECB President Lagarde warned of weaker economic growth but reassured that the EU's response to US tariffs would not pose inflationary risks. Economic growth in the Eurozone is expected to be slow, and the ECB is likely to continue supporting the economy with interest rate cuts. Positive sentiment towards the euro, driven by fiscal expansion, is gradually fading, especially after the originally planned 500 billion euros was partly redirected to 100 billion euros for decarbonization as a concession to the "greens." Many analysts argue that these two goals are incompatible, as decarbonization will likely slow European development in the long run. As a result, sentiment towards the euro is expected to weaken.

The UK economy today showed expansion in the private sector and services, but the manufacturing sector fell well below the 50 mark, indicating contraction. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects to lower its growth forecast for this year, which could lead to cuts in planned spending. The Bank of England may reduce interest rates in May. It is expected that the UK economy will face pressures from rising borrowing costs, which could negatively affect growth in the second half of 2025.

The development of commodity currencies such as AUD, CAD, and NZD will depend on several key factors. In Canada, snap elections have been called as the Liberal Party seeks to gain a strong mandate and the trust of the Canadian public to continue its policy toward Trump. However, tariffs imposed on Canada are causing significant concern and could slow future development, thus limiting investment activity. For trading the Canadian dollar, it would be ideal to catch short-term strength, as the currency is likely to weaken due to concerns about the future economic outlook. The AUD could gain short-term support after tomorrow's budget announcement, which includes increased government spending on defense (by 1 billion AUD) and relief on the cost of living. NZD could show similar trends to CAD, although New Zealand is likely to avoid recession. However, reciprocal tariffs and expectations of a loose monetary policy from the RBNZ, which anticipates further interest rate cuts, could have a negative impact on this currency.

US Dollar Rises Early Wednesday Ahead of FED minutes

14 d - Josef Brynda

The dollar strengthened against major global currencies this morning in anticipation that interest rates will remain unchanged, according to CME Group. Its strength was also supported by weaker-than-expected data from the eurozone regarding the consumer price index. On the other hand, the approval of the stimulus package did not provide significant support to the euro, possibly because the Greens are demanding that part of the planned fund be invested in environmental innovations, which investors in Europe often perceive as a negative factor.

At the same time, yesterday's data from the U.S. almost ruled out concerns about a current recession, as industrial production showed a growth of around 0.7%. Additionally, labor market data also indicate stability. Overall, it can be said that U.S. fundamental data remain strong, but investor sentiment has been unsettled due to the unpredictability of government policy. The foreign exchange market is currently experiencing ideal yet often difficult-to-predict movements.

As I mentioned earlier, it will be crucial to follow Jerome Powell’s speech today at 19:00, where he will comment on the current and future economic outlook. Based on observed data, it can be assumed that Powell will not rush into further rate cuts this year, and we rather expect only two reductions, provided that the economy demonstrates resilience. These cuts could then lead to a neutral interest rate.

However, more than ever, it is now essential to monitor investor sentiment. Market sentiment has recently pushed the euro up by approximately 5% against the dollar.

Vote on lifting the debt brake for defense spending

15 d - Josef Brynda

Today, March 18, 2025, an extraordinary session is taking place in the German Bundestag, where lawmakers are debating a comprehensive financial package aimed at strengthening defense and investing in infrastructure. This package includes a reform of the so-called debt brake, a constitutional measure limiting the country's debt, with the goal of enabling higher defense spending. The proposal has been put forward by the parties of the likely new governing coalition, the conservative CDU/CSU alliance and the Social Democratic Party (SPD), and they are also negotiating support with the Green Party.

The proposal includes the creation of a €500 billion investment fund, which would be used for infrastructure modernization, such as roads, railways, and energy networks. This fund would be financed through loans, which requires an amendment to the existing debt brake. A two-thirds majority in parliament is needed to approve these changes, which is why intense negotiations with other parties are taking place.

The future chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has emphasized the necessity of this step in response to current geopolitical threats and the need to strengthen the defense capabilities of Germany and Europe. He also pointed to the weakening alliance with the United States under President Donald Trump, which increases the need for European defense autonomy.

We can say that if German debt leads to economic growth and higher inflation, the ECB may raise interest rates. Higher rates attract investors and strengthen the euro. Additionally, capital inflows into Europe and expectations of increased demand can further push the euro higher.

However, this is a short-term effect – if the debt proves to be unsustainable, it could lead to a loss of confidence in the economy and a weakening of the euro.

Daily Analysis 2025/03/11

22 d - Josef Brynda

Latest news

USD

  • Recent weeks have highlighted the US economy's key role in global markets. Growing fears of a trade war are reviving recession concerns, reflected in the US dollar's decline last week
  • The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped below 4.2% on Tuesday, reaching a one-week low as growing US recession fears fueled demand for safe-haven bonds.
  • The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.1 points from a month earlier to 100.7 in February 2025, marking the lowest level since October 2024, just before the election, and coming in below market expectations of 101.
  • Market expectations now suggest the next Fed rate cut could happen in May instead of September.
  • Today’s JOLTS job opening shows better than excepted data around 7,740 and beat the previous number.

CAD

  • The Canadian dollar was trading around 1.44 per USD after reaching a monthly low of 1.45. The market is adjusting to new 25% tariffs.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that Canada will immediately impose a 25% tariff on $155 billion worth of U.S. imports if Trump's tariffs remain in effect for more than 21 days.
  • The Bank of Canada warns that long-term tariffs could reduce Canadian production by nearly 3% over two years and "erase growth."
  • The Canadian dollar is expected to be influenced by economic factors such as GDP growth and interest rates in 2025. The Bank of Canada is anticipated to cut interest rates more quickly than the Fed, which could weaken the Canadian dollar in the first quarter.
     
     

EUR

  • The euro recorded its strongest weekly performance in 16 years, driven by the announcement of the EU's ambitious €800 billion defense spending plan.
  • Eurozone finance ministers express concerns that the new U.S. policy on cryptocurrencies could threaten financial stability and the monetary sovereignty of the eurozone.
  • The ECB is focusing on the development of the digital euro to maintain financial stability and sovereignty in the eurozone. This is a response to the growing influence of cryptocurrencies and digital currencies.
  • Stronger-than-expected growth in German industrial production in January boosted optimism in the eurozone and supported the euro.

GBP

  • The FTSE 100 was flat to lower around 8,590 on Tuesday, as traders stayed wary amid continued uncertainty about global economic conditions.
  • Retail sales in the UK rose by 0.9% year-on-year in February 2025, a sharp slowdown from January’s 2.5% gain and well below the expected 2.4% increase.
  • The British pound (GBP) continues to rise against the US dollar (USD), approaching resistance at the 1.30 level.
  • The Bank of England is set to keep interest rates at 4.5% next week, which could impact the Pound's exchange rate.
  • The UK GDP report will be released this week, which could impact the Pound's exchange rate if it deviates from expectations.
  • Germany's fiscal reforms and plans for defense spending are strengthening the Euro and negatively impacting the Pound's exchange rate.

AUD

  • Australian shares plummet amid US recession concerns.
  • Deloitte Access Economics expects that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025 and by another 75 basis points in 2026. This should have a positive impact on households with mortgages.
  • Commodity prices, such as iron ore and copper, are declining, which could impact the Australian economy, as it is heavily reliant on raw material exports.
  • China, Australia's main trading partner, has returned to deflation, which could negatively impact the Australian economy and the AUD exchange rate.
  • The volatility index (VIX) has risen by nearly 20%, indicating growing uncertainty in the markets. This could impact the AUD exchange rate and overall economic stability.

NZD

  • Trade tensions between the U.S. and China, which directly impact the New Zealand economy as China is its largest trading partner, are preventing further growth of the NZD.
  • The Australian and New Zealand Dollars are in an unstable state due to recession fears triggered by tariffs and increased risk aversion in financial markets.
  • New Zealand modifies income and work experience criteria for foreign workers.

News summary

We have an unusual situation in which the EUR/USD currency pair is rising despite the fact that the ECB is cutting interest rates while the Fed is not. However, it should be remembered that the recent decision by the Governing Council was already priced in by the market, whereas now the market is anticipating a potential shift in the Fed’s leadership stance in the coming months.

If the fiscal strategy in Europe is fully implemented by 2026, it could significantly change the underlying narrative—from one of U.S. divergence to potentially Europe outperforming U.S. growth. The last time this happened was in 2017. Increased spending is driving higher demand for European assets, which, according to market expectations, could delay the ECB from cutting interest rates.

EUR/USD is at pre-election levels, with the main driver of this pair being expectations of increased spending in Europe. But isn't this too much for a mere "promise"? Unlike in the U.S., individual measures in Europe cannot be canceled or implemented with a "single signature". Chancellor Merz first needs to secure support from the Greens, who have expressed cautious skepticism toward this package but have shown a willingness to negotiate. The outcome may be known by the end of this week.

Currencies such as AUD, CAD, and NZD remain weak against the dollar, AUD and NZD are weakening mainly due to concerns about the economic situation in China, which is once again in a deflationary zone, while the EUR and GBP have strengthened significantly over the past week, mainly due to plans for increased defense spending in Europe. These expenditures make sense during a recession but continue to deepen debt.

On the other hand, the unpredictable situation in the U.S. fails to convince investors to invest in the world’s largest economy. This is mainly due to concerns about future inflation as well as trade tariff policies.

However, our analysis still believes that fears of a recession are somewhat exaggerated. Ultimately, it will depend on how the labor market performs in the near future. Today’s JOLTS Job Openings data came in better than expected, in line with previous months, which is not a significant indicator of an impending recession. The biggest fear is caused by concerns over the introduction of tariffs, as tariffs have the ability to cool down the economy while simultaneously increasing prices, which is the worst aspect of economic functioning. Specifically, during periods of low economic performance and high unemployment, prices tend to rise.

Daily Analysis 2025/03/03

3. 3. 2025 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

USD

  • Friday's failure of the war-ending agreement between Trump and Zelensky.
  • Additionally, tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China are scheduled to take effect on March 4.
  • Trump's plans on tariffs against Canada and Mexico will be the key risk event to watch alongside US ISM manufacturing PMI data.
  • Inflation expectations rose from 5.2% to 6%, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs on prices.
  • The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.23% on Monday, recovering slightly from a two-month low hit in the previous session, as investors braced for the March 4 deadline of President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs.
  • The pace of economic growth in the US slowed to 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024, down from 3.1% in the previous quarter.
  • The number of new unemployment benefit claims in the US increased by 22,000 to 242,000 last week, the sharpest increase in five months.
  • This week's jobs report could signal another direction for rate cuts.

CAD

  • Canada expects the introduction of tariffs from the American side on its exports to the United States.
  • The Bank of Canada adopted a dovish stance, lowered interest rates from 5% to nearly 3%, and ended quantitative tightening in response to slow growth and inflation below target.
  • Falling oil prices, which are at two-month lows, further dampen demand for the Canadian dollar due to Canada's reliance on oil exports.
  • Uncertainty about tariffs is already affecting business operations in Alberta, a key province for the Canadian economy.
  • Trump plans a 10% tariff on the Canadian energy sector, which could significantly affect Alberta's economy.

EUR

  • The euro strengthened against the dollar in response to European leaders' efforts to ensure Ukraine's security.
  • This week, the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting will take place, where an interest rate cut is expected.
  • The euro fell to 1.0375 against the US dollar last Friday, its lowest level since 13 February.
  • European leaders are trying to create a "coalition of the willing" to support a ceasefire in Ukraine.
  • The EBRD has lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 3.2%, down 0.3 points from September 2024, as slowing investment, trade uncertainty, and weaker external demand weigh on the outlook
  • Today, negotiations on a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war are taking place among European leaders.

GBP

  • Britain will provide Ukraine with a $2.8 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets.
  • UK factories cut staff at fastest pace since 2020 but optimism rises, PMI shows.
  • The British pound strengthened past $1.265, moving closer to an over two-month high hit above $1.27 on February 26, as optimism grew around a potential Ukraine peace plan led by European leaders.
  • Net mortgage borrowing by individuals in the UK rose by £0.9 billion to £4.2 billion in January 2025, the largest increase since September 2022 and following a £1.1 billion advance in December.
  • The S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.9 in February 2025 from 48.3 in January, revised higher from preliminary expectations of 46.4 but still pointing to the sector’s sharpest contraction since December 2023.
  • The UK’s 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.54% from a three-week low of 4.485% last Friday, as investors weighed geopolitical and monetary developments.

AUD

  • Australia’s 10-year government bond yield rose to around 4.37%, rebounding from a three-week low as investors braced for a busy week. 
  • ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads declined by 1.4% month-over-month in February 2025, following an upwardly revised 1.3% gain in the previous month and marking the first drop since last November.
  • Australia's CoreLogic Home Value Index rose 0.3% in February, reversing a short-lived downturn that lasted just three months and had pushed the national measure of home values down by 0.4%.
  • Corporate profits in Australia expanded by 5.9% qoq in Q4 of 2024, above estimates of a 1.5% growth and, recovering from an upwardly revised 4.9% fall in Q3.
  • In China, important meetings will take place as part of the Two Sessions, where discussions will focus on future economic stimulus measures.
     

NZD

  • In China, important meetings will take place as part of the Two Sessions, where discussions will focus on future economic stimulus measures.
  • New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX 50 fell 0.4% to 12,550 on Monday, snapping a three-day winning streak as infrastructure and real estate stocks weighed on the index.
  • The New Zealand dollar stabilized around $0.561 on Monday after six sessions of decline, supported by strong Chinese economic data.
  • The merchandise (goods) terms of trade in New Zealand rose 3.1% quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December of 2024, following a revised 2.5% increase in the previous period and surpassing market expectations of a 1.1% growth.

News summary

Fond kvalifikovaných investorů

28. 2. 2025 - admin admin

V roce 2025 bychom chtěli posunout úvahy o transformaci na fond kvalifikovaných investorů. Výhodou pro klienty je větší transparentnost a daň z příjmu 5% místo současných 19%. Probíhají jednání s jednotlivými správci fondů, aktuálně je však pro nás správcovský poplatek velmi drahý.