11. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
Náš fond dosáhl v roce 2024 zhodnocení 15,55 %, čímž se zařadil mezi nejvýkonnější fondy na trhu. Rok 2024 přinesl na finančních trzích volatilní období, ať už kvůli zahajení cyklu snižování sazeb americkou centrální bankou nebo volbami v USA.
Při porovnání s konkurencí si náš fond vedl nadprůměrně. Konzervativní a dluhopisové fondy vykázaly nižší výnosy (2–5 %), smíšené fondy dosahovaly kolem 7,5 %, zatímco akciové fondy se pohybovaly mezi v průměru 14,2 % s mediánem 12,65 %. Akciím se však letos dařilo nadprůměrně. V roce 2024 zaznamenal index S&P 500 významný růst, když dosáhl celkového výnosu přibližně 25 %, výsledek výrazně převyšuje dlouhodobý průměrný výnos indexu, který se pohybuje kolem 9,8%.
Do budoucna může být růst akciových trhů méně výrazný, pokud bude FED snižovat sazby pomaleji, kvůli obavám z vyšší inflace v letošním roce. Naše strategie je však navržena tak, aby přinášela stabilní výnosy i v méně příznivých tržních podmínkách. Těšíme se na další příležitosti v roce 2025!
| Typ fondu | Penzijní společnost | Zkrácený název fondu | Výnos 2024 | Typ fondu | Penzijní společnost | Zkrácený název fondu | Výnos 2024 | |
| Peněžní | KB | Peněžní | 4,5 % | Smíšený | Allianz | Vyvážený | 8,9 % | |
| Konzervativní | Allianz | Konzervativní | 4,0 % | Smíšený | ČS | Vyvážený | 6,0 % | |
| Konzervativní | Conseq | Konzervativní | 3,7 % | Smíšený | ČSOB | Vyvážený | 7,5 % | |
| Konzervativní | ČS | Konzervativní | 3,2 % | Smíšený | Generali | Vyvážený | 7,7 % | |
| Konzervativní | ČSOB | Konzervativní | 2,5 % | Smíšený | KB | Vyvážený | 7,5 % | |
| Konzervativní | Generali | Konzervativní | 3,4 % | Smíšený | NN | Vyvážený | 10,7 % | |
| Konzervativní | KB | Konzervativní | 3,8 % | Smíšený | UNIQA | Vyvážený | 9,4 % | |
| Konzervativní | NN | Konzervativní | 3,0 % | Akciový | Allianz | Dynamický | 14,7 % | |
| Konzervativní | Rentea | Konzervativní | 2,9 % | Akciový | Conseq | Globální akciový | 12,4 % | |
| Konzervativní | UNIQA | Konzervativní | 3,5 % | Akciový | ČS | Dynamický | 9,6 % | |
| Dluhopisový | Conseq | Dluhopisový | 5,4 % | Akciový | ČSOB | Dynamický | 16,1 % | |
| Dluhopisový | Conseq | Target Bond 2035 | 0,0 % | Akciový | ČSOB | Dyn. zodpovědný | 9,2 % | |
| Dluhopisový | ČS | Etický | 2,5 % | Akciový | Generali | Dynamický | 12,9 % | |
| Dluhopisový | ČSOB | Garantovaný | 2,6 % | Akciový | KB | Akciový | 9,4 % | |
| Dluhopisový | ČSOB | Pro penzi | 4,4 % | Akciový | NN | Růstový | 19,0 % | |
| Dluhopisový | Generali | Spořicí | 3,3 % | Akciový | Rentea | Akciový | 8,2 % | |
| Dluhopisový | KB | Dluhopisový | 2,2 % | Akciový | UNIQA | Akciový | 30,3 % | |
| Dluhopisový | Rentea | Dluhopisový | 2,1 % | |||||
| Dluhopisový | UNIQA | Dluhopisový | 2,1 % |
11. 2. 2025 - admin admin
V tomto týdnu probíhá nasazování neuronové sítě na zapůjčený GPU rig. Trénování tak bude mnohonásobně rychlejší a je také možné využít tisíce neuronů, které CPU nezvládne.
10. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
EURUSD
The EUR/USD currency pair is expected to face continued downward pressure in the short term, driven by diverging monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB), as well as escalating trade tensions. The U.S. dollar remains strong, supported by robust labor market data and expectations of further interest rate hikes, while the ECB appears poised to cut rates further next year amid weak Eurozone economic performance. President Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, along with potential new tariffs targeting the EU, has added additional strain on the euro, which is already trading near a two-year low against the dollar. Technical analysis suggests further weakening of EUR/USD, with selling interest likely to increase as bearish sentiment dominates. Upcoming key events, such as U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony, are expected to reinforce dollar strength. Meanwhile, improvements in the Sentix Investor Confidence index and the upcoming Munich Security Conference could provide limited support for the euro, but these factors are unlikely to offset the broader bearish trend.
USDCAD
USD/CAD remains volatile, trading near 1.43 as U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum weigh on the Canadian Dollar. Strong U.S. labor market data and upcoming inflation figures support the Dollar, while Canada’s solid job growth in January has reduced expectations for a Bank of Canada rate cut to 60–65%. However, the Canadian Dollar remains vulnerable to further U.S. tariff threats, keeping upward pressure on USD/CAD.
AUDUSD
AUDNZD
AUD/NZD could see sideways trading in the short term due to a lack of strong momentum on either side. However, if RBA rate cuts are confirmed or trade tensions escalate further, the pair may trend lower toward key support levels around 1.06–1.07. Conversely, any easing in global trade tensions or stronger-than-expected Australian economic data could provide temporary relief for AUD/NZD. On teh other hand the Australian Dollar remains under pressure due to escalating trade tensions, including U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports and China's new tariffs on U.S. exports, which indirectly affect Australia's trade-dependent economy. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to cut its cash rate from 4.35% to 4.10% later this month, further weighing on the AUD.
EURGBP
The pound is weighed down by concerns over stagnant UK economic growth, with Thursday's GDP report expected to show a 0.1% contraction for Q4 2024. Additionally, expectations of multiple Bank of England (BoE) rate cuts in 2025 further limit sterling's upside potential. Analysts suggest that while the UK may be less affected by U.S. tariffs compared to the EU, this advantage is unlikely to significantly strengthen the pound against the euro. It will be interesting to see how the growth of GBP and tariffs on the UK develop; they could potentially weaken the pound if the data disappoints.
AUDCAD
NZDCAD
3. 2. 2025 - admin admin
Ve druhé polovině roku 2024 a začátkem roku 2025 pokračují práce na neuronové síti. Přesnost předpovědí se daří neustále vylepšovat, především díky pravidelné tvorbě nových modelů neuronových sítí včetně optimalizace. Každou hodinu dostáváme aktuální data ze serveru, pomocí kterých neuronová síť vytváří svoje předpovědi. Vývoj se blíží do finální fáze a očekává se brzké uvedení sítě do praxe.
23. 1. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
EURUSD
EUR/USD pair is likely to face downward pressure in the coming days. The euro is weighed down by dovish expectations from the European Central Bank (ECB), with President Christine Lagarde hinting at potential rate cuts as inflation aligns with the 2% target. Additionally, President Trump's threat of 10% tariffs on EU goods adds uncertainty to EU-US trade relations, further pressuring the euro. On the other hand, the US dollar remains supported by a stronger dollar index (DXY), bolstered by rising US bond yields above 4.6% and expectations of stable Federal Reserve policy in January. However, speculation about a possible Fed rate cut in July could limit USD gains in the longer term. With both currencies facing challenges, the USD's relative strength, driven by better economic performance and higher interest rates, suggests that EUR/USD could trend lower in the short term, potentially testing support levels near 1.0400 if no positive surprises emerge from Eurozone economic data or ECB policy signals.
USDCAD
USD/CAD pair is expected to maintain its bullish momentum in the coming days. The US dollar is supported by a strong dollar index (DXY), rising US bond yields, and expectations of stable Federal Reserve policy, while the Canadian dollar faces multiple headwinds. President Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods starting February 1 adds significant pressure on Canada’s export-driven economy, particularly in key sectors like energy. Additionally, declining crude oil prices (WTI at $75 per barrel) and political uncertainty in Canada due to a nonfunctioning government undermine investor confidence in the CAD. Weak domestic economic data, such as stagnant retail sales growth and slowing inflation, further contribute to expectations of a dovish Bank of Canada (BoC), with potential rate cuts in 2025. Technically, USD/CAD is trading near resistance levels around 1.4390, with potential to test 1.4485 or even higher if these trends persist. The divergence between a hawkish Federal Reserve and a dovish BoC, combined with external pressures like tariffs and weak oil prices, suggests further upside for USD/CAD in the near term.
AUDUSD
AUDNZD
Pair may see a slight upward bias in the coming days, but both currencies face significant domestic and external challenges. The Australian dollar is under pressure from slow GDP growth, high inflation, and stagnant wages, while declining commodity prices, such as crude oil, add further strain. However, the New Zealand dollar faces even greater headwinds, including expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in February and record-high emigration levels, which highlight domestic economic challenges. Additionally, weak global dairy prices—New Zealand's key export—continue to weigh on the Kiwi.While both currencies are impacted by global risk sentiment and commodity markets, the relatively more dovish outlook for the RBNZ compared to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could give the AUD a slight advantage over the NZD. Technically, if AUD/NZD holds above key support levels near 1.0650, it could test resistance around 1.0750 in the short term. However, broader market dynamics, such as Chinese economic stabilization measures (important for both economies), could also play a role in shaping the pair's trajectory. Overall, AUD/NZD is likely to see modest gains for the AUD unless there is a significant shift in sentiment or unexpected economic data from either country.
EURGBP
The euro faces headwinds from the European Central Bank's (ECB) dovish stance, as policymakers, including President Christine Lagarde, signal further rate cuts. Markets have fully priced in a cut in the deposit rate on January 30, which could weaken the euro further. Additionally, concerns over trade uncertainty due to potential U.S. tariffs on EU goods add to the euro's challenges.On the other hand, the British pound is also under pressure due to expectations of rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE), with a 25 basis point cut anticipated in February and additional cuts expected throughout 2025. Weak UK economic data, including higher unemployment and disappointing retail sales, further weigh on GBP sentiment. However, compared to the ECB's deeper easing cycle, the BoE's monetary policy outlook appears slightly less dovish, which could provide some support for the pound relative to the euro.
AUDCAD
The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar both face challenges, but the CAD appears to have the upper hand in the near term. The AUD is under pressure due to weak domestic economic growth, high inflation, and stagnant wages, coupled with declining commodity prices, such as crude oil. Additionally, concerns over China's economic slowdown—Australia's largest trading partner—add further strain on the AUD. On the other hand, the CAD is supported by its reliance on energy exports, although falling crude oil prices (WTI at $75 per barrel) and political uncertainty in Canada limit its potential gains.
NZDCAD
6. 1. 2025 - Josef Brynda
Donald Trump denied easing tariffs
Around noon Central European Time, an interesting event unfolded, highlighting a phenomenon often referred to as "Trump Trade." Washington News reported that Donald Trump planned to soften his pre-election stance on imposing tariffs on other countries as part of his protectionist policies. For details on the potential implications of such a move, refer to previously published articles on our profile.
This announcement triggered a reaction in the markets, causing the U.S. dollar to weaken by up to 1%. Investors adjusted their expectations, dismissing the possibility of inflationary policies linked to tariffs and the associated higher interest rates. However, shortly after 3 PM, Donald Trump himself denied these claims, prompting the dollar to recover by half a percent.
This situation perfectly exemplifies the unpredictability of "Trump Trade," where unexpected events often cause significant market swings. As Trump’s new term approaches, it’s clear that this period will be closely watched, requiring careful analysis and filtering of news to navigate the market effectively.
6. 1. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
EURUSD
Based on the provided reports, EURUSD appears to be showing bullish momentum in the short term, with EUR/USD already increasing by 0.55% to 1.0368. While the Eurozone shows some positive signals with Services PMI revision up to 51.6 and Germany's improvement to 51.2, the underlying concerns about declining export orders for 19 consecutive months suggest structural weaknesses. On the USD side, despite strong ISM Manufacturing PMI data and robust employment expectations, the dollar has weakened by 0.48%, suggesting a near-term advantage for the euro. However, the US's strong economic fundamentals and potential resistance to interest rate cuts could limit EURUSD's upside potential in the medium term.
USDCAD
The USDCAD analysis points to potential CAD weakness against USD. Despite the US dollar's recent 0.48% decline, strong US economic fundamentals, including improved ISM Manufacturing PMI and robust job market expectations, provide underlying support. Canada's significant political uncertainty with Trudeau's resignation and the threat of US tariffs create substantial headwinds for the CAD. This combination of US strength and Canadian uncertainty suggests USDCAD could maintain an upward trajectory.
AUDUSD
AUDNZD
Analysis of AUDNZD suggests a moderate bullish bias for the Australian dollar. Australia's clear economic metrics, including the improvement in Composite PMI to 50.2 and positive business confidence, contrast with New Zealand's less definitive economic picture. While both currencies benefit from Chinese economic recovery prospects, Australia's more detailed economic indicators and direct economic ties to China provide stronger support. However, shared regional influences and risk sentiment factors could limit extreme movements.
EURGBP
While the EURGBP pair appears positioned for gains based on comparative economic data, with Eurozone's revised PMI of 51.6 outperforming UK's downward revision to 51.1, the longer-term outlook suggests a potential downward trend. The UK's composite PMI falling to 50.4, combined with declining employment and accelerating input costs, supports short-term upward momentum. However, looking into 2025, Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline, supported by expectations of stronger UK economic growth at 1.2%. The key driver will be the divergence in central bank policies, with the ECB likely to cut rates more aggressively than the BOE, ultimately favoring sterling strength in the longer term.
AUDCAD
The AUDCAD pair analysis suggests a potential bullish bias for AUD against CAD. Australia's Composite PMI showing improvement to 50.2 and China's stronger-than-expected Services PMI (52.2) provide support for the Australian dollar. Meanwhile, the Canadian dollar faces significant political uncertainty with Trudeau's reported resignation and the looming threat of 25% US tariffs on Canadian imports. These political and trade risks for CAD, combined with Australia's relatively stable economic indicators despite some cost pressures, suggest AUDCAD could see upward movement.
NZDCAD
18. 12. 2024 - Josef Brynda
The Strength of the Dollar Should Continue: What Drives the Growth of the U.S. Currency?
The dollar remains one of the most closely watched assets in financial markets, even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) has decided to lower interest rates today. According to traditional macroeconomic theory, this move should weaken the dollar while boosting equities. However, in the current environment, the rate cuts were largely priced in, as evidenced by the CME FedWatch Tool – a key indicator of interest rate trends – which showed a 96% probability of this move.
Why, then, should the dollar maintain its strength despite today’s rate cut?
The key lies in the Fed’s rhetoric and forecasts, which have once again proven to be crucial for market direction. The Fed adjusted its outlook for 2025, now projecting only two rate cuts instead of the previously planned three. Additionally, it has reduced the scope of the cuts to 50 basis points (bps). Moreover, it raised its inflation forecast for 2025 from 4.25% to 4.5%. These changes suggest that the central bank will continue to closely monitor inflationary pressures and maintain a relatively tight monetary policy. These fundamentals support the dollar’s strength, as confirmed by investor sentiment.
How Will Donald Trump's Return Impact the Markets?
Donald Trump’s return to the presidency could bring additional dynamics for the dollar. At first glance, his administration might be seen as a positive signal, but the unpredictability of his policies could complicate the situation. For instance, deportation of the labor force could increase unemployment and reduce performance in key sectors, negatively affecting consumption. On the other hand, this move could boost inflation, as domestic labor is more expensive than workers from Mexico or other countries. Higher inflation could compel the Fed to adopt an even tighter monetary policy.
Another key factor will be the independence of the central bank during Trump’s administration. It will be critical to observe how the Fed maintains its independence, particularly with a new Fed Chair taking office. Trump has previously hinted at influencing the Fed via the U.S. government, which could create significant challenges for the credibility of the entire U.S. economy. Trump favors the lowest possible rates, which make borrowing cheaper in financial markets and support sectoral activity.
What to Expect from the Dollar in 2025?
Based on current fundamental data and investor sentiment, the dollar is expected to maintain its strength in 2025. Additionally, there is potential for the EUR/USD currency pair to reach parity, given the challenges faced by the Eurozone. This would further confirm the dollar’s dominance in global markets.
For investors, it remains critical to monitor not only economic data but also political developments in the U.S., as these will have a decisive impact on the future trajectory of the U.S. currency.