Formulář pro daň z příjmu

25. 2. 2025 - admin admin 25. 2. 2025 13:25:19

Formulář pro daň z příjmu je k dispozici na tomto odkazu

Je možné zvolit měnu CZK nebo EUR

German elections and the economic situation

25. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 25. 2. 2025 13:15:37

German elections

The German elections were won by the conservative CDU/CSU union with 28.52% of the vote. The far-right party AfD finished second with a record result of 20.8% and expressed its ambition to co-shape political developments in Germany. However, the winning party firmly rejected this possibility.

AfD, together with the left-wing party Die Linke, secured what is known as a blocking minority, which could enable them to obstruct CDU/CSU’s planned reforms on the debt brake and military modernization. This suggests that negotiations will be complex.

Following the election results, the euro initially strengthened against the dollar by up to 0.7% in anticipation of responsible fiscal policies. However, the subsequent weakening of the euro was likely caused by uncertainties surrounding coalition negotiations and the potential blocking minority formed by AfD and Die Linke.

Coalition talks are expected to take place primarily with the SPD, with whom the CDU/CSU collectively secured 328 seats out of 630. Merz, the incoming chancellor, is striving to expedite negotiations as much as possible to prevent political stagnation.

German economy

While elections took place in Germany, the country’s economy continues to struggle. According to the latest GDP data, economic output declined by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, confirming a second consecutive year of economic contraction. Forecasts for 2025 predict growth of just 0.3%, significantly lower than the initial estimates.

The main issues include an industrial slowdown, particularly due to high costs in the automotive sector, as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has led to higher energy costs. Additionally, weak consumer confidence remains a challenge, as stagnating wages continue to impact the labor market.

Daily Analysis 2025/02/24

24. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 24. 2. 2025 14:33:57

Latest news

USD

• Higher-than-expected inflation data and strong labor market conditions have led the Fed to adopt a more restrictive stance, potentially delaying rate cuts.
• The S&P Global preliminary composite index fell to 50.4, a 17-month low, signaling economic uncertainty.
• The 10-year yield closed at 4.43%, reflecting increased risk aversion and demand for safe-haven assets like the USD.
• This key inflation metric will be closely watched, as it could significantly impact Fed rate expectations and USD movement.
• Musk's DOGE program destabilizes federal employees and could negatively impact the USD.

CAD

• The Canadian dollar has maintained a strong position despite the weakening of oil prices.
• Toni Gravelle, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada (BoC), is scheduled to speak today.
• Last week, Canada's Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, signaling robust economic activity.

EUR

• A weak victory for Merz, the German press warns of further far-right growth.
• The CDU/CSU bloc and SPD have enough seats to form a majority government, reducing political uncertainty and strengthening the euro.
• The euro climbed as much as 0.6% before trimming some gains to trade just below $1.05 on Monday, as traders digested the results of the German election.
• European equity markets were set for a strong opening on Monday as investors digested the results of Germany's general election, where the conservative Christian Democratic Union secured a victory, as expected.
• EURUSD increased to a 4-week high of 1.05. Over the past 4 weeks, Euro US Dollar gained 0.22%, and in the last 12 months, it decreased 3.06%.
• Germany’s economic sentiment data could further influence EUR price action.
• Eurozone Inflation Rate Confirmed at 6-Month High
• The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, in line with expectations.

GBP

• GBP remains sensitive to broader risk sentiment, USD strength, and upcoming inflation data.
• The Pound maintains a bullish outlook against the Euro, but short-term upside may be limited.
• Several important speeches from BoE members could impact market sentiment.
• Two more rate cuts expected this year.

AUD

• Risk-sensitive AUD could face volatility ahead of Nvidia earnings and US PCE data.
• A drop in oil prices could impact AUD, given its correlation with commodities.
• China’s plan to revitalize the agriculture sector and boost consumption lifts the China-proxy Kiwi.

NZD

• The NZD/USD pair rose by 0.46% to 0.57685 during today's early trading, supported by China's announcement of rural reforms and stimulus measures aimed at boosting consumption.
• New Zealand Core Retail Sales increased by 1.4% in Q4, significantly beating expectations of 0.2% and recovering from the previous quarter's decline of -0.6%.
• New Zealand Retail Sales grew by 0.9% in Q4, exceeding forecasts of 0.5% and improving from the previous quarter's 0.0% growth.
• China’s plan to revitalize the agriculture sector and boost consumption lifts the China-proxy Kiwi.

News summary

Overall, it seems that the US dollar may not achieve the same success in the coming days as it did at the beginning of the year. However, from a fundamental perspective, the US economy remains in very good shape compared to other countries. Hard data indicate that the US continues to outperform other economies. The Federal Reserve has signaled, and the market expects, that interest rates will remain unchanged at the upcoming meeting, while other central banks are taking a more dovish stance. This interest rate differential between central banks should continue to attract investors to buy dollars, thereby increasing demand for the currency.

On a sentiment level, however, the market has recently perceived some previous threats, such as tariffs, as less significant. The results of the conservative party in Germany are seen as positive for the European market, mainly due to the winning party's program focused on debt reduction and conservative economic policies. This could limit further gains for the US dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to move sideways, fluctuating between 1.05 and 1.03, with developments depending on various factors in both the Eurozone and the US. Key influences may include potential new trade tariffs, statements from the Fed and ECB, and the post-election negotiations in Germany. Any uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government could negatively impact the euro.

Mixed inflation data from Canada indicate a slight increase in inflation to 1.9% in January, which remains below the Bank of Canada's inflation target of 2%. This development should continue to push the Canadian central bank towards a more accommodative monetary policy. The interest rate differential between Canada and the US stands at 1.5 percentage points, which is a relatively significant gap between these economies. The further development of the USD/CAD pair will depend on trade relations between Canada and the US, as well as on additional fundamental data from Canada.

The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week but also signaled a cautious approach to further easing. This rhetoric likely helped strengthen the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Additionally, positive news from China contributed to a more optimistic outlook. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points last week, bringing it down to 3.75%. This move may have supported retail sales, pushing them to a three-year high, as lower financing costs have made consumer spending more affordable. That could lead to strenght the Kiwi currency. 

The British pound benefited from strong fundamental data last week, including declining unemployment and stable inflation around 3%. This situation will likely force the Bank of England to keep interest rates at their current level. The economic gap between the UK and the Eurozone is significant at the moment, and the future outlook for the pound is expected to favor the UK.

Daily Analysis 2025/02/17

17. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 17. 2. 2025 14:02:23

Latest news

USD

• Trump threatens to introduce "reciprocal tariffs" on imports, causing volatility in the US dollar.
• Strong US labor market data for January 2025 support expectations of a tighter Fed policy.
• Weak US retail sales lead to a decline in the dollar.
• The release of the Fed meeting minutes may signal caution regarding further monetary easing, which could support the dollar.
• Uncertainty surrounding Trump's negotiations to end the war in Ukraine has caused market turbulence and affected the dollar.
• A decline in US consumer spending due to high debt levels and dwindling savings could weaken economic growth and the dollar.
• The threat of retaliatory tariffs from US trade partners could harm exports and weaken the dollar’s position in global markets.
• Rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures in the US, which could influence the Fed’s decisions and the dollar’s value.
• The outflow of foreign investments into emerging markets supports demand for the dollar as a safe haven.

CAD

• This weak inflation data could influence the BoC interest rate outlook.
• RBC Economics expects January inflation in Canada to slow to 1.7% due to a temporary reduction in GST/HST taxes.
• Ongoing threats of US tariff imposition remain a key factor affecting the Canadian dollar.
• In its report, the Bank of Canada reiterated its warning that potential new tariffs could seriously harm the domestic economy and increase pressure on monetary policy.
• The USD/CAD currency pair has fallen below the 1.42 level and is approaching the 200-day moving average near 1.40.

EUR

• Government bond yields in the eurozone declined at the beginning of February; however, they are now expected to potentially rise if inflation starts to increase or if concerns over trade tariffs ease.
• U.S. Senator Marco Rubio stated today that Europe will play a key role in the peace negotiations concerning Ukraine.
  • However, Lavrov says that Europeans have no place in these negotiations.
• A national strike took place in Belgium against the new government reforms.
• Economists are increasingly predicting that the European Central Bank will continue cutting rates even after the three expected 25-basis-point reductions in the upcoming meetings.
• While the ECB's confidence in reaching the 2% inflation target is growing, U.S. trade policy may impact the eurozone's economic outlook.
• While eurozone economic growth has been revised to 0.9% (down from 1%), Spain is the only country where analysts expect improved performance.

GBP

• Pound-to-Euro Rate Looks to Break Major Resistance Line in a Busy Week.
• GDP data for Q4 2024 showed a growth of 0.1%, surpassing expectations of a decline.
• The Pound remains stable at the start of the week as investors await the release of key macroeconomic data, including tomorrow’s UK employment figures and Wednesday’s inflation (CPI) data.
• The strengthening Pound had a negative impact on some exporters and companies earning in dollars, which was reflected in a decline in the FTSE 100 index.
• At the latest BoE meeting, interest rates were kept at 4.75%, but the vote showed growing support for a rate cut.
• Hopes for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine boosted markets and weakened the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset.
• Key data releases, including UK inflation (CPI) and retail sales, are expected, which could impact GBP volatility in the coming days.

AUD

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.10% at its meeting on Tuesday.
• The Australian dollar strengthened due to the postponement of reciprocal tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump.
• Optimism about a potential agreement between Russia and Ukraine also contributed to positive market sentiment.
• The AUD/USD pair reached a two-month high near 0.6370. However, speculation about an RBA rate cut may limit further gains.
• The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.22% to close at 8,437 on Monday, retreating from record highs, with heavyweight banks leading the decline.
• Australia’s 10-year government bond yields rose to around 4.49% as investors awaited the Reserve Bank of Australia's upcoming monetary policy decision.
• The Australian dollar rose above $0.635 on Monday, reaching a two-month high as investors prepared for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s upcoming monetary policy decision.

NZD

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will meet on February 19, and markets fully expect a rate cut. The probability of a 25 or 50 basis point reduction is roughly balanced.
• NZ inflation expectations dip to 2.06% in Q1 2025
• The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.4 in January, marking the first expansion in nearly two years and a significant improvement from December's 45.9.
• New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 index closed 0.6% higher at 13,069, marking a three-week high, driven by a surge in shares of consumer non-durables.
• The New Zealand dollar strengthened to around $0.574 on Monday, rising for the third consecutive session to a two-month high, supported by a weaker US dollar following a downside surprise in US retail sales last week.
• The number of visitor arrivals in New Zealand soared 12.2% year-on-year to 469,842 in December 2024, the highest since the 528,219 in December 2019, just before the COVID-19-related disruption to international travel from early-2020.

News summary

Global currency markets are currently influenced by several key factors affecting volatility and exchange rates of major currencies. The US dollar faces uncertainty due to the threat of "reciprocal tariffs" and weak retail sales, which, combined with high household debt and declining consumption, weaken its position. 

On the other hand, the higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S is forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy and could lead to a pause in the planned rate-cutting cycle. The resilience of the U.S. economy is further supported by a strong labor market, which has remained at very favorable levels for an extended period.

From a global perspective, the U.S. economy continues to deliver really good performance, which may increase demand for the dollar and strengthen its value. Additionally, the interest rate differential between the U.S. and other key economies remains significant, providing further support for the dollar.

The eurozone faces the risk of rising government bond yields due to concerns over inflation and trade disputes, while economic growth has slowed to 0.9%. The European Central Bank is likely to continue its accommodative monetary policy even under neutral interest rates.

The Australian dollar will depend on the relationship between interest rates and inflation expectations following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting. After the rate decision, it will be crucial to monitor the bank’s next steps and its commentary on the economic outlook.

The Australian dollar has recently strengthened, mainly due to the easing of U.S. tariff threats, increased Chinese government spending, and improved Chinese GDP growth. The future direction of AUD/USD will largely depend on the performance of the U.S. dollar, particularly in its role as a safe-haven asset. If Europe reaches an agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, the USD could weaken against the AUD. However, apart from weak retail sales, U.S. economic data remains strong, particularly in the labor market and overall economic performance.

On February 19, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates. The key question is whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. The Investing platform predicts a 25 bps reduction, but market speculation suggests an equal probability for both scenarios. If the RBNZ opts for a 50 bps cut, the NZD could weaken.

Given the current fundamental and sentiment-driven data, the AUD/NZD pair could see an upward trend. However, it will be essential to closely monitor the decisions of both central banks and their accompanying statements, as they could significantly influence market expectations and currency movements.

Higher-than-expected inflation

12. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 12. 2. 2025 15:07:49

The latest inflation data for the USA has just been released. The actual figures were higher than expected, which led to a nearly 1% strengthening of the USD compared to today's local high. The data suggests that the Federal Reserve (FED) may continue tightening monetary policy, as accelerating inflation poses a risk to long-term price stability. At the same time, with the US imposing tariffs that create pro-inflationary pressures, the FED may not be in a hurry to take further action.

This trend could lead to parity between EUR and USD, which is no longer an entirely unrealistic target. Such a development could be disadvantageous for American exporters. Additionally, rising inflation could negatively impact US stock markets, which may report lower results this year due to the potential for stricter policies from the central bank. These conditions could limit opportunities for domestic companies, potentially driving investors towards safer assets.

Given these findings, it will be crucial to watch Jerome Powell’s speech today, as it may provide insight into the future direction of monetary policy, with expectations leaning towards a more hawkish tone.

Overall, both sentiment and fundamental analysis suggest that under these conditions, the USD should remain strong, while the stock market could be paralyzed by these data.

Jerome Powell before Congress.

12. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 12. 2. 2025 14:52:14

Daily Analysis 2025/02/11

11. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 11. 2. 2025 14:50:07

Latest news

USD

• The US dollar remains stable ahead of the anticipated testimony of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
• The 25% tariff increase on steel and aluminum by President Trump has caused international tension and threats of retaliatory measures from the EU.
• The US Consumer Price Index (CPI), set to be released this week, may influence expectations regarding the Fed's future monetary policy.
• Markets remain volatile due to uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs between the US and Canada.
• The US dollar is strengthening against weaker Asian currencies, such as the Indian rupee, which has hit a record low.
• The ongoing rise in US Treasury yields supports the dollar.
• The Trump administration has signaled the possibility of additional trade restrictions, increasing market uncertainty.
• The Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates, putting further pressure on emerging market currencies against the USD.
• The dollar benefits from the weakening Chinese economy, which is impacting global trade flows.
• Investors are monitoring geopolitical tensions related to Ukraine and potential impacts on the dollar.

CAD

• The CAD remains under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US-Canadian trade tariffs, which may take effect in 30 days.
• Stagnating oil prices limit the growth potential of the CAD as a commodity currency dependent on oil exports.
• Unemployment in Canada dropped to 6.6% due to the creation of 76,000 new jobs in January. However, the strong labor market has not yet strengthened the CAD due to broader economic uncertainties.
• The increase in the capital gains tax rate in Canada from 50% to 67% starting in June 2025 may lead to the sale of Canadian assets and further weakening of the currency.
• Major asset managers are increasing short positions in the futures market, and investors are paying higher premiums for options to hedge against further weakening of the CAD.

EUR

• The European Union is planning tough retaliatory measures against US tariffs on steel and aluminum.
• Eurozone bond yields are rising slightly, indicating expectations of higher interest rates.
• The European Commission announced a $51.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence, which could support the eurozone economy.
• The ECB has not yet announced any changes to monetary policy, causing volatility in the euro against the dollar.
• The EUR/GBP pair shows signs of strengthening due to the weakness of the British pound after the Bank of England's recent rate cuts.
• The German economy is showing signs of slowing down, which may affect the ECB's future decisions.
• The ECB is expected to respond to US tariffs by increasing support for European exporters.
• Political tensions in the EU, related to Trump's "peace plan" proposal for Ukraine, could impact investor confidence in the eurozone.
• European stock markets remain cautious due to global trade uncertainties.
• The French government has launched an investigation into algorithmic bias in tech companies, which could affect the EU's tech sector.

GBP

• The Bank of England recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points and is discussing further potential cuts due to weak demand in the British economy.
• Investors are anticipating the release of key economic indicators, including GDP and inflation data.
• Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann has shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance, further weakening confidence in the pound.
• Switzerland recently cut rates by 50 basis points, which may prompt similar actions in Britain and other European countries.
• The situation in Ukraine and tensions between Western countries and Russia could indirectly impact the British economy and currency.

AUD

• The Australian dollar is under pressure due to the weak Chinese economy, a key trading partner for Australia.
• The increase in US tariffs on steel and aluminum has negatively affected Australian exports of these commodities.
• AUD/USD is struggling to break resistance at 0.63, but the market remains volatile.
• The weak performance of the Chinese economy reduces demand for Australian resources, weakening the AUD.
• Australia's economy is expected to stagnate due to lower infrastructure investments and a weak domestic labor market.
• The recent rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia contribute to the AUD's weakness against major currencies.
• Trade tensions between the US and China further weaken the Australian dollar, a commodity currency dependent on exports to China.
• The market anticipates a further decline in AUD/USD towards 0.62 amid continued pressure on the Chinese economy.
• Investors are watching iron ore prices, a key Australian export, and their influence on the AUD.
• Political uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region contributes to investor caution towards the AUD.

NZD

• The New Zealand dollar is under pressure due to the weak performance of the Chinese economy, a significant trading partner.
  
• New Zealand's economic growth is expected to stagnate due to lower demand for dairy products in Asia.
  
• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has signaled the possibility of further interest rate cuts due to weak GDP growth.
  
• NZD/USD remains volatile due to trade disputes between the US and China, which impact global commodity markets.
  
• The weak performance of New Zealand's agricultural sector adds to uncertainty about the NZD's future direction.

News summary

The US dollar remains strong, supported by rising Treasury yields and a weakening Chinese economy, while markets await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and key CPI data. Trade tensions with Canada and geopolitical risks around Ukraine add volatility but favor USD strength in the short term.The Canadian dollar struggles due to stagnant oil prices and uncertainty over US-Canadian tariffs. Despite a strong labor market, broader economic concerns and a planned capital gains tax hike weigh on CAD, with potential for further depreciation.The euro faces volatility as Eurozone bond yields rise slightly, driven by market dynamics rather than rate hike expectations, as the ECB continues cutting rates. However, Germany’s slowing economy and political tensions related to US tariffs and Ukraine weigh on investor confidence, limiting euro upside potential. The British pound remains under pressure following a BoE rate cut, with further easing likely amid weak domestic demand and dovish signals from policymakers. Geopolitical risks and dovish sentiment from policymakers add to GBP's bearish outlook.The Australian dollar is weighed down by weak Chinese demand for resources, trade tensions, and recent RBA rate cuts. AUD/USD remains under pressure near key support levels, with risks skewed to the downside.The New Zealand dollar is similarly pressured by weak Chinese demand for dairy products and the potential for further RBNZ rate cuts as growth stagnates. Trade disputes between the US and China add to NZD's vulnerability.

Overall, USD strength is likely to dominate in the near term, while commodity-linked currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) face downside risks. EUR and GBP remain vulnerable to economic and geopolitical uncertainties.

Srovnání výsledků v roce 2024

11. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda 11. 2. 2025 10:52:02

Náš fond dosáhl v roce 2024 zhodnocení 15,55 %, čímž se zařadil mezi nejvýkonnější fondy na trhu. Rok 2024 přinesl na finančních trzích volatilní období, ať už kvůli zahajení cyklu snižování sazeb americkou centrální bankou nebo volbami v USA.

Při porovnání s konkurencí si náš fond vedl nadprůměrně. Konzervativní a dluhopisové fondy vykázaly nižší výnosy (2–5 %), smíšené fondy dosahovaly kolem 7,5 %, zatímco akciové fondy se pohybovaly mezi v průměru 14,2 % s mediánem 12,65 %. Akciím se však letos dařilo nadprůměrně. V roce 2024 zaznamenal index S&P 500 významný růst, když dosáhl celkového výnosu přibližně 25 %, výsledek výrazně převyšuje dlouhodobý průměrný výnos indexu, který se pohybuje kolem 9,8%.

Do budoucna může být růst akciových trhů méně výrazný, pokud bude FED snižovat sazby pomaleji, kvůli obavám z vyšší inflace v letošním roce. Naše strategie je však navržena tak, aby přinášela stabilní výnosy i v méně příznivých tržních podmínkách. Těšíme se na další příležitosti v roce 2025!