Daily analysis 06/11/2024

11. 6. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• Global economic growth has improved to 2.7% in 2024, according to a UN report, but risks remain from high interest rates and geopolitical tensions
• Gold prices rose by ₹150 to ₹66,000 per 10 grams, while silver prices also increased
• The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, with markets speculating on a possible rate cut in November
• The S&P 500 reached a new record high, closing at 5,360.79, driven by gains in tech stocks like Microsoft, Amazon, and Nvidia. The Nasdaq Composite also rose, closing at 17,192.53
• The US Dollar has maintained its strength, particularly against the Euro, which is struggling due to political uncertainties in the EU. 
• The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold interest rates steady on Wednesday but its commentary will be closely parsed for hints as to the direction of monetary policy.
• Canada has interest rates still at their lowest level in 4 years
• The EUR/USD pair has been under bearish pressure recently. As of June 10, 2024, the pair is likely to fall to the support level of 1.0700 due to the stronger U.S. dollar and mixed economic data from the Eurozone
• Japan's Q1 GDP fell less than first reported on revised capex
• The U.S. economy created 272,000 jobs in May, more than the 185,000 expected, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields

News summary

• The U.S. dollar has shown strength due to robust economic data and speculation about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. This has led to gains against major currencies, including the euro and the Canadian dollar. The euro, on the other hand, has weakened due to mixed economic data from the Eurozone and political uncertainties in key member states like France.
• In summary, the U.S. dollar is expected to maintain its strength in the near term, driven by strong economic data and cautious monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. The euro and other major currencies may face continued pressure due to regional economic and political challenges.
• The global economy is showing signs of improvement with a growth rate of 2.7% in 2024
• Overall, while the global economy is on a positive trajectory, it remains vulnerable to various risks, including high interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and inflationary pressures

Temné fondy dostaly políček od ČNB. Miliardové pasti à la Cryfin ale padnou, až Češi zmoudří

4. 6. 2024 - admin admin

Navigating the Impact of High Interest Rates: Insights into Wealth Disparity and Economic Growth

30. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

High interest rates indeed benefit the wealthiest Americans, who are the driving force behind the surprising economic growth, and make it harder for the Fed to push through the desired rate cuts. The simplified theory of raising and lowering interest rates is straightforward - lower rates foster faster economic growth, while higher rates slow down the economy. However, experiences from the past 18 months of the U.S. economy are making the latter assumption harder to swallow. "In terms of income, those who earn more than $100,000 expressed the greatest increase in confidence," said Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board, in a press release. "Based on a six-month moving average, confidence remained highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (earning more than $100,000) consumers." Financial commentator Josh Brown suggested that high rates could prolong the current bout of inflation due to the advantages that higher rates provide to the wealthiest Americans. Wealthy households can now earn up to 4.5% on high-yield savings accounts, their stock portfolios have grown by 20% in a year, and they are watching as the value of their real estate climbs. These individuals desire nothing more than for rates to stay high.

Daily analysis 05/30/2024

30. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• New Zealand announced tax cuts worth NZ$14.7 billion over the next four years
   
• Germany's inflation rate accelerates to 2.4 percent in May
• Asian stocks sink on tech losses as rates, inflation fears mount
• BOJ May Raise Rates Two More Times in 2024, Columbia’s Ito Says
• Resurgence of the US Dollar: Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Levels to Watch
• EUR/USD stays depressed near 1.0800, awaits US data
• RSI dropped to 32
• Bitcoin price today: flat at $68k as inflation, rate jitters dent sentiment
• The bond market stays in charge so far this week
• New Zealand budget - Treasury forecasts inflation below 3% in Q3 2024
• ECB Set to Cut Rates Next Week Amid Policy Divergence, While US Fed Signals Distant Rate Cuts Pending Inflation Improvement
• Stocks wilt, bond yields jump as investors focus on rates
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decrease

News summary

• Beginning with New Zealand, tax cuts worth NZ$14.7 billion were announced. These measures may strengthen the New Zealand dollar, but their impact on EUR/USD is likely to be limited.
• In Germany, inflation accelerated to 2.4% in May. This increased inflation could strengthen the euro and affect EUR/USD in favor of the euro.
• During the Asian trading session, stock markets fell due to losses in the technology sector and concerns about inflation and interest rates. This trend could strengthen the dollar as a safe haven and dampen EUR/USD
• .Expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could strengthen the Japanese yen and slightly weaken the dollar, which could slightly strengthen EUR/USD.
• The dollar is recovering due to concerns about inflation and expectations of higher interest rates, which could strengthen the USD against other currencies, including the euro, and thus dampen EUR/USD.
• A decline in jobless claims in the United States could strengthen the dollar due to a better job market. A stronger dollar could weaken EUR/USD.
• Overall, the development of the dollar and the EUR/USD currency pair is expected to be influenced by a combination of factors, including inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events, and economic data. Traders and investors will monitor these factors and react to new information, which could affect exchange rate changes in the currency market.

Vývoj neuronové sítě 1. část

28. 5. 2024 - admin admin

Za první pololetí 2024 byl vytvořen prototyp neuronové sítě se základním nastavením pro časové řady. Síť neustále optimalizujeme a pracujeme na agregátorech dat, které do ní vstupují. Jedná se např. o zprávy a jejich sentiment, časové řady pro různá aktiva a korelační koeficienty. Neustále probíhá trénování neuronové sítě a následná optimalizace. Navazujícím úkolem je propojení trénovacího serveru s obchodovacím serverem a napojení na reálná obchodní data.

Fed’s Kashkari about rate cut

28. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

The Federal Reserve should wait for more substantial progress on inflation before considering interest rate cuts, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday.

When asked about the conditions for rate cuts in 2024, Kashkari said, “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.”

The Fed official also didn't rule out further rate hikes if inflation persists, saying that the central bank shouldn’t rule anything out at this point.

Daily analysis 05/28/2024

28. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• Asian stocks tread water with inflation cues on tap
• Asia FX drifts higher, dollar weakens slightly before inflation
• Wall Street Moves to Fastest Settlement of Trades in a Century
• ECB’s Schnabel Says QE Must Be Used Carefully Outside of Crises
• Wall Street Moves to Fastest Settlement of Trades in a Century
• Gold prices steady as focus turns to US inflation data
• BOJ's underlying inflation measures in April all fall below 2%
• UK shop price growth back to normal, retailers say
• Oil Steadies as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Before OPEC+ Meeting
• Norway’s Oil Companies Expect to Spend $24 Billion in 2024
• Bitcoin Retreats as Traders Mull Risk of Sales Linked to Mt. Gox
• Post-COVID, China is back in Africa and doubling down on minerals
• Stocks Rise, Dollar Slips Ahead of Inflation Data

News summary

• ECB's Schnabel emphasizes caution in using quantitative easing outside of crises, suggesting that the ECB might maintain a tighter monetary policy. This could support the euro against the dollar, as a tighter policy usually means higher interest rates or at least policy stability, making the euro more attractive to investors.
• A weaker dollar ahead of upcoming inflation data suggests that markets expect milder inflationary pressure. If US inflation data is lower than expected, the Fed might be less inclined to raise interest rates, potentially leading to further dollar weakness
• Asian stocks are treading water ahead of inflation data, indicating global uncertainty regarding inflation. Lower inflation could support global growth and increase demand for riskier assets, including the euro.
• Steady gold prices indicate that investors are awaiting significant inflation data. Higher inflation could further weaken the dollar, boosting the euro.
• The normalization of shop price growth in the UK suggests reduced inflationary pressures, which could stabilize markets and support the euro.
• Oil price stability ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices, which could increase inflationary pressures globally.
• China's post-COVID return to Africa and focus on minerals suggests strengthening trade ties and a possible increase in investment in the region, which could boost the growth of local economies.
• Based on these factors, it is likely that the EUR/USD exchange rate will strengthen. Signs of a tighter monetary policy from the ECB and expectations of milder US inflation suggest that the euro could appreciate against the dollar

Daily analysis 05/27/2024

27. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• China’s Industry Threatens Entire Global Economy, France Warns
• Asian Shares Climb Most in Week on Fed Cut Hopes
• Fed’s Favorite Underlying Inflation Gauge Is Seen Cooling
• ECB Will Need to Be Restrictive All Year Long, Lane Says
• Japan May Hike Rate to 0.5% by Year-End, Ex-BOJ’s Masai Says
• China Industrial Profits Rise on Exports, Equipment Upgrades
• Gold prices rise slightly after weekly losses; inflation in focus
• Oil prices steady as markets turn focus to OPEC+ meeting
• Elon Musk's xAI valued at $24 billion after fresh funding
• Bitcoin price today: hovers around $68k, Ether surges on spot ETF progress
• Asia FX treads water, dollar steady ahead of inflation test

News summary

• The ECB is expected to implement restrictive measures, which could strengthen the euro against the dollar. These measures may include raising interest rates or other steps aimed at tightening monetary policy.
• If the Fed were to cut interest rates, it could weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro against it. Investors may seek higher yields elsewhere, leading to a departure from the dollar.
• Possible interest rate hikes in Japan could weaken the euro against the Japanese yen and the dollar. This could reduce the attractiveness of the euro as an investment currency.
• If Chinese industrial production and profits grow, it could strengthen the Chinese yuan and weaken the euro against the dollar. This could be a result of increased confidence in the Chinese economy and heightened interest in Chinese assets.
• Higher prices for gold and cryptocurrencies may signal distrust in traditional currencies and a search for safe havens. This could boost demand for dollars and weaken the euro against it.
• There are mixed signals regarding the global economy, with some reports warning of potential threats while others indicate growth and stability. The evolution of inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical events will continue to be important factors influencing economic development. Concerns about inflation and the search for safe investments may lead to strengthening of the dollar and other safe havens.