Daily analysis 05/30/2024

30. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• New Zealand announced tax cuts worth NZ$14.7 billion over the next four years
   
• Germany's inflation rate accelerates to 2.4 percent in May
• Asian stocks sink on tech losses as rates, inflation fears mount
• BOJ May Raise Rates Two More Times in 2024, Columbia’s Ito Says
• Resurgence of the US Dollar: Bullish Momentum and Key Resistance Levels to Watch
• EUR/USD stays depressed near 1.0800, awaits US data
• RSI dropped to 32
• Bitcoin price today: flat at $68k as inflation, rate jitters dent sentiment
• The bond market stays in charge so far this week
• New Zealand budget - Treasury forecasts inflation below 3% in Q3 2024
• ECB Set to Cut Rates Next Week Amid Policy Divergence, While US Fed Signals Distant Rate Cuts Pending Inflation Improvement
• Stocks wilt, bond yields jump as investors focus on rates
• U.S. Initial Jobless Claims are expected to decrease

News summary

• Beginning with New Zealand, tax cuts worth NZ$14.7 billion were announced. These measures may strengthen the New Zealand dollar, but their impact on EUR/USD is likely to be limited.
• In Germany, inflation accelerated to 2.4% in May. This increased inflation could strengthen the euro and affect EUR/USD in favor of the euro.
• During the Asian trading session, stock markets fell due to losses in the technology sector and concerns about inflation and interest rates. This trend could strengthen the dollar as a safe haven and dampen EUR/USD
• .Expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could strengthen the Japanese yen and slightly weaken the dollar, which could slightly strengthen EUR/USD.
• The dollar is recovering due to concerns about inflation and expectations of higher interest rates, which could strengthen the USD against other currencies, including the euro, and thus dampen EUR/USD.
• A decline in jobless claims in the United States could strengthen the dollar due to a better job market. A stronger dollar could weaken EUR/USD.
• Overall, the development of the dollar and the EUR/USD currency pair is expected to be influenced by a combination of factors, including inflation, interest rates, geopolitical events, and economic data. Traders and investors will monitor these factors and react to new information, which could affect exchange rate changes in the currency market.

Vývoj neuronové sítě 1. část

28. 5. 2024 - admin admin

Za první pololetí 2024 byl vytvořen prototyp neuronové sítě se základním nastavením pro časové řady. Síť neustále optimalizujeme a pracujeme na agregátorech dat, které do ní vstupují. Jedná se např. o zprávy a jejich sentiment, časové řady pro různá aktiva a korelační koeficienty. Neustále probíhá trénování neuronové sítě a následná optimalizace. Navazujícím úkolem je propojení trénovacího serveru s obchodovacím serverem a napojení na reálná obchodní data.

Fed’s Kashkari about rate cut

28. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

The Federal Reserve should wait for more substantial progress on inflation before considering interest rate cuts, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari told CNBC on Tuesday.

When asked about the conditions for rate cuts in 2024, Kashkari said, “Many more months of positive inflation data, I think, to give me confidence that it’s appropriate to dial back.”

The Fed official also didn't rule out further rate hikes if inflation persists, saying that the central bank shouldn’t rule anything out at this point.

Daily analysis 05/28/2024

28. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• Asian stocks tread water with inflation cues on tap
• Asia FX drifts higher, dollar weakens slightly before inflation
• Wall Street Moves to Fastest Settlement of Trades in a Century
• ECB’s Schnabel Says QE Must Be Used Carefully Outside of Crises
• Wall Street Moves to Fastest Settlement of Trades in a Century
• Gold prices steady as focus turns to US inflation data
• BOJ's underlying inflation measures in April all fall below 2%
• UK shop price growth back to normal, retailers say
• Oil Steadies as Geopolitical Tensions Rise Before OPEC+ Meeting
• Norway’s Oil Companies Expect to Spend $24 Billion in 2024
• Bitcoin Retreats as Traders Mull Risk of Sales Linked to Mt. Gox
• Post-COVID, China is back in Africa and doubling down on minerals
• Stocks Rise, Dollar Slips Ahead of Inflation Data

News summary

• ECB's Schnabel emphasizes caution in using quantitative easing outside of crises, suggesting that the ECB might maintain a tighter monetary policy. This could support the euro against the dollar, as a tighter policy usually means higher interest rates or at least policy stability, making the euro more attractive to investors.
• A weaker dollar ahead of upcoming inflation data suggests that markets expect milder inflationary pressure. If US inflation data is lower than expected, the Fed might be less inclined to raise interest rates, potentially leading to further dollar weakness
• Asian stocks are treading water ahead of inflation data, indicating global uncertainty regarding inflation. Lower inflation could support global growth and increase demand for riskier assets, including the euro.
• Steady gold prices indicate that investors are awaiting significant inflation data. Higher inflation could further weaken the dollar, boosting the euro.
• The normalization of shop price growth in the UK suggests reduced inflationary pressures, which could stabilize markets and support the euro.
• Oil price stability ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and geopolitical tensions could lead to higher oil prices, which could increase inflationary pressures globally.
• China's post-COVID return to Africa and focus on minerals suggests strengthening trade ties and a possible increase in investment in the region, which could boost the growth of local economies.
• Based on these factors, it is likely that the EUR/USD exchange rate will strengthen. Signs of a tighter monetary policy from the ECB and expectations of milder US inflation suggest that the euro could appreciate against the dollar

Daily analysis 05/27/2024

27. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• China’s Industry Threatens Entire Global Economy, France Warns
• Asian Shares Climb Most in Week on Fed Cut Hopes
• Fed’s Favorite Underlying Inflation Gauge Is Seen Cooling
• ECB Will Need to Be Restrictive All Year Long, Lane Says
• Japan May Hike Rate to 0.5% by Year-End, Ex-BOJ’s Masai Says
• China Industrial Profits Rise on Exports, Equipment Upgrades
• Gold prices rise slightly after weekly losses; inflation in focus
• Oil prices steady as markets turn focus to OPEC+ meeting
• Elon Musk's xAI valued at $24 billion after fresh funding
• Bitcoin price today: hovers around $68k, Ether surges on spot ETF progress
• Asia FX treads water, dollar steady ahead of inflation test

News summary

• The ECB is expected to implement restrictive measures, which could strengthen the euro against the dollar. These measures may include raising interest rates or other steps aimed at tightening monetary policy.
• If the Fed were to cut interest rates, it could weaken the dollar and strengthen the euro against it. Investors may seek higher yields elsewhere, leading to a departure from the dollar.
• Possible interest rate hikes in Japan could weaken the euro against the Japanese yen and the dollar. This could reduce the attractiveness of the euro as an investment currency.
• If Chinese industrial production and profits grow, it could strengthen the Chinese yuan and weaken the euro against the dollar. This could be a result of increased confidence in the Chinese economy and heightened interest in Chinese assets.
• Higher prices for gold and cryptocurrencies may signal distrust in traditional currencies and a search for safe havens. This could boost demand for dollars and weaken the euro against it.
• There are mixed signals regarding the global economy, with some reports warning of potential threats while others indicate growth and stability. The evolution of inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical events will continue to be important factors influencing economic development. Concerns about inflation and the search for safe investments may lead to strengthening of the dollar and other safe havens.
   

TwTwo-Speed World Weighs on G-7 With Inflation Fading Unevenly

24. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

A two-speed global economy skewed by US strength is overshadowing this week’s Group of Seven meeting as officials confront the prospect of less synchronized monetary policies.

Finance ministers in the lakeside resort of Stresa on Friday are weighing the durability of America’s growth momentum against the perennial sickliness of Europe’s expansion — colored by nearby geopolitical tensions — and pondering the implications for financial

05/20/24 Daily analysis

20. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• European stocks edge higher; Ryanair reports rise in profits
• Oil Extends Gains as Traders Monitor Iran, Saudi Developments
• Metals, stocks surge as rate cut expectations firm
• ECB’s Kazaks Warns Against Hasty Interest-Rate Cuts After June
• Gold Hits Record High on Fed Rate-Cut Hopes, Rising Haven Demand
• Top Japan companies agree to 5.58% average pay hike, business lobby says
• Slowing Inflation Primes G-7 Central Banks for June
• Bitcoin price today: flat at $67k, more Fed cues in focus
• Most Asian currencies weakened slightly on Monday, while the dollar steadied as traders awaited more cues on interest rates from the Federal Reserve this week.
• Broader currencies weakened slightly as traders remained on edge over the path of U.S. interest rates.

News summary

• Expectations of interest rate cuts in the United States: Reports of hopes for interest rate cuts by the Fed could weaken the dollar. If these expectations were confirmed, the dollar could lose value due to lower yields it could provide.
• Stabilization of the dollar in anticipation of further signals from the Fed: News of stable Bitcoin prices and traders' wait for additional signals from the Federal Reserve could lead to stabilization of the dollar. Traders may be cautious and await further information before deciding on further trading steps.
• The stable bitcoin price and the expectation of further decisions by the Federal Reserve may lead to a stabilization of the dollar. Investors may be cautious and wait for further information before making further trading moves.
• Overall, the dollar could remain stable or weaken due to expected interest rate cuts, but market reactions may be sensitive to new information and events.

New inflation reading offers hope for Fed rate cuts

16. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda