Ekonomické zpravodajství

Daily analysis 08/13/2024

13. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news
  • Japanese equities gain 3% as the market rebounds following a national holiday
  • Focus on Pandora, which reported better-than-expected Q2 results and raised its 2024 revenue guidance
  • Home Depot exceeds quarterly expectations but warns of weaker sales in the latter half of the year due to high interest rates and consumer uncertainty
  • The US dollar remains range-bound ahead of the US inflation report scheduled for tomorrow
  • The New Zealand dollar outperforms, anticipating the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision
  • The Japanese yen and Swiss franc show mixed performance amid geopolitical risks
  • Crude oil prices are rising due to potential geopolitical tensions, including a possible large Iranian attack on Israel.
  • WTI crude oil increased by 4.2% to $80.06, while Brent crude rose by 3.3% to $82.3.
  • Gold prices are also up by 1.71% as US Treasury yields decline ahead of crucial CPI data
  • Bond markets are steady as investors await key economic data and monitor geopolitical tensions.
  • European bond markets have shown little change, with the German 10-year yield flat at 2.23%.
  • US Treasury yields have fallen, driven by a risk-off sentiment as investors seek safety amid geopolitical concerns.
  • The Germany August ZEW survey is estimated at 34.0, down from 41.8 previously.
  • The US July PPI Final Demand YoY is estimated at 2.3%, down from 2.6% prior.
  • Key macro events include the eurozone ZEW survey and US PPI data, with the US CPI report due tomorrow.
News summary
  • The current financial landscape is significantly influenced by various factors, including economic data releases, corporate earnings, and geopolitical tensions. These elements are expected to impact the forex market, particularly the USD and EUR.
  • The USD is currently range-bound as markets anticipate the upcoming US inflation report. The outcome of this report is crucial as it will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy decisions. If the inflation data indicates a cooling trend, it may support expectations for potential interest rate cuts, which could weaken the USD. Conversely, if inflation remains high, it could reinforce expectations for tighter monetary policy, potentially strengthening the USD. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, such as the potential Iranian attack on Israel, could drive safe-haven demand for the USD, adding upward pressure.
  • The EUR is influenced by both regional economic indicators and broader market sentiment. The recent decline in the Germany August ZEW survey suggests a deteriorating economic outlook, which might weigh on the EUR. However, if the US PPI data signals a cooling US economy, it could reduce the USD's attractiveness, potentially providing some support to the EUR. Moreover, geopolitical risks could lead to increased volatility, affecting the EUR's performance against other currencies.
  • The EUR's movement will also depend on the eurozone's economic resilience and the European Central Bank's policy stance in response to economic challenges.In the forex market, the mixed performance of currencies like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc amid geopolitical risks highlights the complexity of currency movements. Safe-haven currencies may experience increased demand if geopolitical tensions escalate, leading to potential appreciation. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar's outperformance reflects market expectations of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's rate decision, showcasing how monetary policy expectations can drive currency movements.
  • Overall, the forex market is poised for potential volatility as traders react to economic data releases and geopolitical developments. The interplay between these factors will shape the trajectories of major currencies like the USD and EUR, influencing trading strategies and economic forecasts.

5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

13. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Futures Bounce: US stock futures are recovering as markets regain ground after recent losses. European and Asian stocks are also rising. Treasuries and the dollar remain stable ahead of key inflation data and Home Depot's earnings report.

Japan Stock Recovery: The Nikkei 225 index in Japan has bounced back from its recent sharp decline, with investors focusing on fundamentals and taking advantage of low valuations.

Chinese Market Intervention: Chinese authorities are tightening control over the local bond market, with interventions to cool down market activity. Meanwhile, Chinese stock trading is declining, and MSCI is reducing Chinese stocks in its benchmarks.

Oil Prices Slip: Oil prices are falling after a five-day increase, due to concerns about weakening global demand. OPEC has cut its demand forecasts, overshadowing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Valuing Assets at B. Riley Financial: B. Riley Financial is struggling to value its assets amid accounting concerns and a federal investigation, leading to a significant drop in its stock and suspension of its dividend.

Consumer Inflation Expectations Decline: Recent data shows that inflation expectations among consumers are decreasing, indicating that fears of sustained high inflation may be subsiding. The 3-year inflation expectation has hit its lowest level in the survey's history.

Daily analysis 08/12/2024

12. 8. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news
  • US Stock Futures Steady as Inflation Data Looms
  • Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk Earnings Highlight Future of GLP-1 Sales
  • Record Short Bets in Five-Year Treasury Futures, Says CFTC
  • Tesla Stops Taking Orders for Cheapest Cybertruck, Offers $100,000 Version
  • US Jobless Claims Decline Significantly, Easing Recession Concerns
  • Fed Officials Hint at Potential Policy Easing Amid Inflation Risks
  • Mixed Employment Data in Canada: Unemployment Rate Steady, Full-Time Jobs Increase
  • China's July CPI Exceeds Expectations, Indicating Weak Domestic Demand
  • Upcoming Macro Events: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, US NY Fed 1-Year Inflation Expectations
  • Earnings Reports: Barrick, Terawulf, Monday.com, Esperion, Freightcar
  • Wall Street Ends Week on a Quiet Note; S&P 500 and Nasdaq Slightly Up
  • Expedia and Eli Lilly See Gains; elf Beauty Shares Plummet
  • Investors Focus on Upcoming US Inflation and Retail Sales Data
  • Treasury Futures Fall Amid Japanese Holiday; Yield Curve Flattens
  • Fed-Dated OIS Contracts Indicate Reduced Rate Cut Expectations
  • Crude Oil Prices Rebound, Marking First Weekly Gain in Five Weeks
  • Natural Gas Prices Surge Nearly 9% for the Week
  • Gold Prices Supported by Geopolitical Risks and Anticipated Fed Rate Cuts
  • US Dollar Ends Volatile Week Nearly Unchanged as Recession Concerns Ease
  • Activity Currencies Recover After Early Week Losses
  • Canadian Dollar Rises with Oil Prices; Japanese Yen Barely Changed
  • Real possibility New Zealand central bank to start cutting rates this week
News summary
  • The anticipation of U.S. inflation data can lead to increased demand for the U.S. dollar, as traders adjust positions based on expected monetary policy changes. A steady stock market suggests stability, which may support the dollar in the short term
  • Large short positions in Treasury futures indicate expectations of rising interest rates, which can strengthen the U.S. dollar as higher yields attract foreign investment
  • A decline in jobless claims suggests a strengthening labor market, which can boost the U.S. dollar as it reduces recession fears and supports potential interest rate hikes
  • Speculation about Fed policy easing can weaken the U.S. dollar if traders anticipate lower interest rates, affecting currency pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY
  • Mixed employment data can lead to volatility in the Canadian dollar, as traders assess the overall economic health and its implications for the Bank of Canada's monetary policy
  • Higher than expected CPI in China can influence the Australian dollar due to Australia's trade ties with China. It may also affect the yuan, as traders speculate on potential monetary policy responses, thus, the Australian dollar may weaken 
  • Oil price changes due to OPEC reports can impact currencies of oil-exporting countries, such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone. Inflation expectations can influence the U.S. dollar's strength
  • A stable stock market can support the U.S. dollar by maintaining investor confidence, potentially leading to inflows into U.S. assets.
  • Anticipation of inflation and retail sales data can lead to speculative movements in the U.S. dollar, as traders adjust for potential shifts in monetary policy.
  • Rising oil prices can strengthen currencies of oil-exporting nations, such as the Canadian dollar and Russian ruble, while potentially weakening the U.S. dollar if higher oil prices increase inflation concerns.
  • The U.S. dollar is influenced by a complex interplay of factors including expectations for inflation and interest rate changes, stability in financial markets, and economic indicators. Positive data for the U.S. economy and expectations for higher interest rates typically support the dollar. Conversely, speculation about monetary policy easing and external economic factors such as oil prices and global inflation data can introduce volatility and impact the dollar's strength.

Daily analysis 07/25/2024

25. 7. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news
  • Tech Sector Leads US Market Lower with Significant Declines in Nasdaq and Russell 2000
  • Dollar slips ahead of GDP data; euro rises and yen surges
  • Strengthening Yen and Weakening Commodity Currencies Reflect Global Economic Concerns
  • U.S. GDP Data Expected to Show Annualized Growth of 2.0% in Second Quarter
  • Inflation Slows Considerably in Q2, GDP Price Index Falls to 2.6%
  • Euro Edges Higher Despite German Business Morale Falling for Third Consecutive Month
  • European Central Bank Expected to Maintain Interest Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty
  • British Pound Falls Ahead of Bank of England Policy-Setting Meeting
  • Bank of Japan Expected to Consider 10 Basis Point Hike and Reduce Bond Purchases
  • Analysts Praise Timing of Japanese FX Intervention Amid Dovish Fed Reappraisal
  • U.S. Dollar Weakens as Market Awaits Key Economic Data and Fed Meeting
  • Market Volatility Increases Ahead of Key Economic Data Releases
  • Gold Prices Dip Below $2400 as Oil Rebounds Amid Inventory Drops and Copper Declines
  • US Yield Curve Steepens Sharply Amid Mixed Market Signals and Economic Data
  • Key Economic Data Releases Highlight Concerns Over Global Economic Recovery
  • China Surprises with One-Year Policy Interest Rate Cut to Stimulate Economy
  • Netanyahu Vows to Press On in Gaza in Defiant Speech to Congress
  • Scholz Clings to Reelection Plan Despite Germany’s Economic Struggles
  • IBM and Newmont Report Strong Earnings, Boosting Market Confidence
  • Ford Motor Misses Earnings Estimates, Shares Drop Significantly
  • Market Volatility Surges with Significant Increases in VIX and VIX1D
News summary
  • The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, fell 0.2% to 103.950, extending an overnight decline as confidence grows that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
  • The weakening of the U.S. dollar and the strengthening of the yen and euro suggest a shift in investor sentiment towards these currencies. This could result in increased demand for the yen and euro, potentially leading to further appreciation against the dollar. Forex traders might seek safe-haven currencies like the yen amid uncertainty, while the euro could benefit from relative stability in the Eurozone.
  • Gross domestic product data for the second quarter, due later in the session, is expected to show annualized growth of 2.0%, higher than the 1.4% growth seen in the first quarter but slower than the 4.2% pace in the second half of last year.
  • If the GDP data meets or exceeds expectations, it could provide some support to the U.S. dollar by indicating economic resilience. However, if the data disappoints, it could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, leading to a weaker dollar. The euro might gain strength if the U.S. economic outlook appears less robust.
  • The GDP price index is expected to show a fall to 2.6% from 3.1%, indicating a considerable slowdown in inflation last quarter, ahead of Friday’s PCE price index data, the Federal Reserve’s favored gauge of inflation.
  • Lower inflation data supports the case for a Federal Reserve rate cut, which can lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar. This scenario could benefit the euro, as a weaker dollar makes the euro more attractive to investors. Forex markets may see increased trading activity as traders position themselves for potential changes in U.S. monetary policy.
  • GBP/USD traded 0.2% lower at 1.2885, falling back from the 1.30 level ahead of next week’s Bank of England policy-setting meeting, with expectations that the central bank may trim interest rates.
  • A weaker British pound can lead to increased volatility in forex markets as traders adjust their positions ahead of the Bank of England meeting. If rate cuts are confirmed, the pound may face further depreciation, affecting cross-currency pairs involving the euro and dollar.
  • The U.S. dollar weakened amid expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with the Dollar Index falling and the yen strengthening ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting. Anticipated U.S. GDP growth and slowing inflation reinforced expectations of monetary easing. The euro edged higher despite declining German business morale, while the British pound fell ahead of a potential Bank of England rate cut. Increased market volatility and strategic Japanese FX interventions also influenced forex dynamics, suggesting potential depreciation of the U.S. dollar and mixed impacts on the euro.

Daily analysis 07/24/2024

24. 7. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news
  • US Stocks Rebound After Biden Exits Presidential Race
  • Nikkei and Hang Seng Indices Drop Amid Market Uncertainty
  • Yen Strengthens on BOJ Rate Hike Speculation
  • Gold Prices Recover as Oil and Copper Continue to Drop
  • Treasuries End Mixed; Yield Curve Steepens
  • Eurozone and U.S. PMI Data to Influence ECB Policies
  • U.S. Q2 GDP Data Expected to Show Economic Growth
  • U.S. PCE Data Could Confirm Fed Rate Cut Expectations
  • Geopolitical Tensions in Gaza Impact Oil Prices
  • Shapiro, Kelly, and Cooper Lead as Harris’s Potential Running Mates
  • Secret Service Director Resigns Following Trump Shooting
  • Macron Delays Naming New Prime Minister
  • Typhoon Gaemi Disrupts Taiwan with Work Halts and Flight Cancellations
  • Lockheed-Martin Beats Q2 Earnings Estimates
  • General Motors Faces Loss in China Despite Strong Earnings
  • LVMH Reports Lower Than Expected Q2 Revenue
  • Tesla Expects Lower Vehicle Volume Growth in 2024
  • Alphabet Exceeds Q2 Sales and EPS Estimates
  • Visa Reports Strong Q3 Net Profit
  • Deutsche Bank Reports First Quarterly Loss in Four Years
News summary
  • US stocks saw a rebound following President Biden's decision to exit the presidential race, which brought some relief to the markets. Asian markets, specifically the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices, closed lower due to ongoing market uncertainties.
  • The Japanese yen continues to strengthen as speculation grows regarding a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. Gold prices have seen a recovery, while oil and copper prices continue to decline amid market uncertainty.
  • US Treasuries ended mixed, with the yield curve steepening due to strong demand for the 2-year note auction. 
    Upcoming Eurozone and U.S. PMI data will be closely watched for signs of economic growth and inflation, potentially influencing future ECB policies.
  • Economists expect the advance U.S. Q2 GDP data to show an annualized growth rate of 1.9%, up from 1.4% in the first quarter. The upcoming U.S. PCE data may confirm expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September.
  • General Motors reported strong earnings but faced a significant loss in the Chinese market, causing its stock to fall. LVMH's Q2 revenue fell short of expectations, with a net profit for H1 down by 14%. Tesla reported Q2 sales that beat estimates but expects lower vehicle volume growth in 2024, focusing on cost reduction. Alphabet reported Q2 sales and EPS that exceeded analysts' estimates, showing strong performance. Visa announced a strong Q3 net profit, with adjusted EPS in line with expectations. Deutsche Bank reported its first quarterly loss in four years due to a trading slowdown and litigation charges.
  • The yen's strength amid BOJ rate hike speculation could lead to further appreciation against major currencies, impacting export competitiveness. The dollar's performance is mixed, with potential weakness against the yen but strength against other major currencies due to economic data and Fed rate cut expectations.
  • In summary, the US dollar is likely to remain volatile as it responds to a mix of economic data and political events. Investors and traders will need to stay vigilant, closely monitoring PMI releases, employment reports, inflation data, and key political developments. Understanding these factors will be crucial for navigating the uncertainties and capitalizing on opportunities in the forex market. As always, a well-informed and flexible approach will be essential in managing the risks associated with dollar volatility.

Vývoj neuronové sítě 2. část

24. 7. 2024 - admin admin

Ve druhém kvartálu 2024 pokračuje trénování neuronové sítě. Daří se postupně zvyšovat pravděpodobnost předpovědi. Neuronová síť byla také propojena s reálným obchodovacím serverem a učí se na reálných datech.

Daily analysis 07/23/2024

23. 7. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news
  • The Bank of Canada is expected to cut rates by 25bps to 4.50% at the July meeting, following its initial rate cut in June
  • Major Companies Report Q2 Earnings: Tesla, Alphabet, IBM, Ford, GM
  • Eurozone PMI Data to Indicate Economic Growth and Inflation Pressures
  • Advance U.S. Q2 GDP Data Expected to Show 1.9% Growth
  • U.S. Inflation Data Release Could Confirm September Fed Rate Cut
  • Oil Prices Influenced by Geopolitical Tensions and U.S. Economic Data
  • European Banks Release Earnings Amid ECB Rate Cut Speculations
  • US Stocks rebounded Monday following Biden’s decision to exit the election race.
  • Yen gains across the board on BOJ rate hike expectations.
  • Gold, oil, and copper prices slide amid political uncertainty and weak demand signals
  • Treasury yields hit weekly highs amid market reactions to Biden withdrawal.
  • Eurozone Consumer Confidence, US Treasury sells $69 billion 2-year notes, ECB’s Lane speaks.
News summary
  • If the BoC delivers a rate cut accompanied by a balanced statement, the CAD may experience limited decline. The market is also pricing in a September Fed rate cut which could put the US dollar on the backfoot. However, a dovish statement with clear indications of further rate cuts could lead to a more pronounced decline in the CAD.
  • US Politics Could Strengthen USD: The increasing probability of a Trump 2.0 presidency and aggressive fiscal policies may drive demand for the US dollar, potentially pressuring CAD. However, markets are unwinding the Trump Trade to some extent with President Biden stepping away from the race
  • Policy Divergence to the Fed: The BoC’s policy rate is already 75bps below the Fed funds rate, and another cut would widen this gap to 100bps, the largest since 2006. This could make the CAD vulnerable, though expectations of Federal Reserve easing in September may alleviate some of this concern.
  • While there may be reasons for the BOC to cut rates again, the statement could turn slightly less dovish and more balanced to reflect the momentum in June core inflation and continued wage pressures. This could mean that a data-dependent approach is emphasized and the central bank could remain away from committing to further rate cuts.
  • The U.S. GDP data will impact the dollar, with stronger-than-expected growth likely to boost the currency by indicating a healthy economy. Weaker data could lead to a decline in the dollar as it might suggest economic slowdown and potential for more dovish Fed policies.
  • The Canadian Dollar (CAD) may weaken against major currencies like the USD, EUR, and JPY due to the lower interest rates, making Canadian assets less attractive to foreign investors.
  • Advance U.S. Q2 GDP data is expected to show a 1.9% growth rate. This figure will be crucial for assessing the overall health of the U.S. economy. A higher-than-expected GDP growth rate could strengthen the USD, while a lower-than-expected rate may weaken it.
  • Prices for gold, oil, and copper have slid amid political uncertainty and weak demand signals. These commodities are often seen as indicators of economic health. A decline in commodity prices may weaken commodity-linked currencies like the AUD, CAD, and NZD.

Daily analysis 07/22/2024

22. 7. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news
  • Semiconductor Sell-off Drags Nasdaq 100 Down 1%
  • USD Softer as Biden Withdraws from US Presidential Race
  • Gold and Oil Prices in Focus Amid Inflation and Political Uncertainties
  • Bond Yields Face Political Uncertainty and Key Economic Data
  • Crucial Week Ahead: US Inflation, GDP Data, Key Earnings Reports, and Eurozone PMI
  • Biden Ends Reelection Campaign, Backs Harris as Nominee
  • Leading Democratic Donors Support Kamala Harris
  • ECB in No Rush to Decide on Rate Cuts
  • Xi Vows to Rewire China’s Finances, Help Indebted Region
  • Treasuries Yields Near Highest Levels Amid Global IT Outage
  • Commodities Watch Political Uncertainties and US PCE Data
  • Risk-on Currencies Underperform Amid Election Uncertainty
  • Nvidia preparing version of new flagship AI chip for Chinese market, sources say
  • Australian Dollar Falls to 3-Week Low against USD
  • China surprised markets when it cut its benchmark interest rates on Monday
  • Another Cut from BoC Will Bring Benchmark Interest Rate to 4.5%
News summary
  • President Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential race has led to a softer USD. This political shift introduces uncertainty in the US political landscape, potentially weakening the dollar further as markets adjust to the new dynamics. Safe-haven currencies like the CHF and JPY might see increased demand, while risk-on currencies such as AUD and NZD could face pressure
  • The semiconductor sector experienced a significant sell-off, leading to a 1% drop in the Nasdaq 100. This sector's performance is crucial as it often indicates broader technology market trends. The sell-off could lead to increased volatility in tech-heavy indices, potentially impacting investor sentiment and risk appetite..
  • Gold and oil prices are under scrutiny due to ongoing inflation concerns and political uncertainties. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, may see increased demand if inflation persists or geopolitical tensions rise. Conversely, oil prices might fluctuate based on economic data and geopolitical developments, influencing commodity-linked currencies like CAD
  • Bond yields are currently influenced by political uncertainties and upcoming economic data. The potential for a Federal Reserve rate cut, indicated by upcoming US inflation data, could drive bond yields lower. However, if economic data suggests robust growth, yields might rise, impacting interest rate-sensitive currencies like USD and EUR.
  • Will China’s interest rate cuts succeed in kick-starting the sputtering economy and boosting demand? If so, it would be good news for the Australian economy, which is highly dependent on exports to China
  • Overall the USD is expected to remain volatile due to political uncertainties following President Biden's withdrawal from the presidential race and the endorsement of Kamala Harris. This uncertainty may lead to a weaker USD as markets adjust, which may benefit currencies considered safe haven such as CHF and JPY. EUR could see some stability if Eurozone PMI data and the ECB's cautious stance on rates provide positive economic signals.