Daily analysis

16. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• Stock Gains Set to Continue in Europe After US CPI: Markets Wrap
• China Property Stocks, Bonds Jump on Proposal for Home Purchases
• Bond Yield Volatility Presents New Risks and Opportunities for Investors
• Oil Advances on US Stockpile Decline and Broader Risk-On Mood
• Bitcoin price today: rebounds to $65k after CPI data, but still rangebound
• Pro Research: Wall Street sees bright future for First Solar
• China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification
• More Companies Are Selling Shares to Help Cut Debt

News summary

• If European stock markets continue to rise, it may indicate a positive sentiment towards European assets, which could support the euro
• The increase in Chinese stocks and bonds in response to the proposal for home purchases may indicate a growth sentiment towards risky assets, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and strengthening of the euro.
• Bond yield volatility may increase market uncertainty and lead to a search for safer assets, which could affect the dollar, with the euro being the preferred alternative.
• Rising oil prices and overall positive sentiment in the markets may lead to a weaker dollar and strengthening of the euro.
• The expected increase in bitcoin prices and generally positive sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets may indicate less interest in dollars and a preference for other assets, including the euro.
• Positive evaluation of First Solar's future by Wall Street may reflect an optimistic sentiment in the stock markets, which could support the euro.
• China's sale of a record sum of US debt amid signs of diversification may indicate weaker interest in dollars and a search for other investment opportunities, which could support the euro.
• If companies are selling shares to reduce debt, it may signal a growth sentiment in the market, which could support the euro.
• Positive data on employment changes in Australia may indicate stronger economic growth, which could support commodity currencies and overall weaken the dollar.
• Higher-than-expected initial jobless claims in the US may indicate a weaker job market, which could have a negative impact on the dollar.
• The expected deterioration in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index may signal weaker economic performance in the region, which could have a negative impact on the dollar."
   

   
   

   

Daily analysis

14. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Latest news

• UK Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest Since Last Summer
• U.K. Average Earnings Index +Bonus
• Stock Futures Muted Before Price Data, Yen Drops: Markets Wrap
• Asian stocks rangebound before U.S. inflation, China hit by property woes
• Gold prices edge higher with US inflation data on tap
• Rate cut bets make investors 'most bullish' since Nov 2021
• Japan stocks higher at close of trade; Nikkei 225 up 0.39%
• Australia stocks lower at close of trade; S&P/ASX 200 down 0.30%

News summary

• Rising unemployment rate in the UK: This factor may cause some uncertainty in the markets as higher unemployment may indicate economic difficulties. This may lead to investor caution and may have a negative impact on the UK equity market.
• Range trading in Asian equities ahead of the release of US inflation and problems with the Chinese property market: this situation may cause caution among investors, which could lead to limited trading in Asian markets.
• Increased gold prices ahead of the release of US inflation: this may signal that investors are seeking a safe haven for their investments given the expected volatility in the markets.
• Anticipation of interest rate cuts making investors 'most optimistic' since November 2021: This could encourage growth in markets as lower interest rates may boost investment activity.
• Overall, markets can be expected to be sensitive to published data and events. Uncertainty over the UK unemployment rate and issues with the Chinese property market may lead to investor caution, while expectations of falling interest rates and the results of inflation data may support growth in markets.
• EUR/USD Forecast: With the UK's higher unemployment rate, investor confidence in the British economy may decrease, impacting the British currency. Global economic concerns stemming from issues in the Chinese market could drive investors towards the safety of the dollar. Additionally, if US PPI surpasses expectations, it may deter the Fed from interest rate cuts, potentially strengthening the dollar.

Viktor Shvets on How the Fed Has Become a Prisoner of Its Own Making

14. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

This week, we'll get fresh inflation data in the US, which will inevitably feed into the Federal Reserve's future decisions to raise, hold or lower benchmark interest rates. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is preparing to announce new tariffs aimed at curbing Chinese imports in key industries, including electric vehicles, batteries and solar cells. On this episode, we speak to Odd Lots favorite Viktor Shvets. The Macquarie strategist has a way of threading the needle between major global events and reaching back into history to provide context for our current macroeconomic moment. He describes the US central bank as a prisoner of its own policies, namely data dependency and the "dot plot." Meanwhile, China faces "massive" overcapacity problems as more and more countries put up barriers to its exports. We also talk about generational shifts and what they mean for investment.

Bank of England keeps interest rates at 16-year high

9. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Bank of England policymakers have kept interest rates on hold at 5.25% for a sixth consecutive time, which comes as no surprise as markets expect rates to come down only in the summer

However, the decision was not unanimous. The nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee were split, with seven voting to hold rates and two voting to cut to 5%

Companies are having their best earnings season in nearly 2 years

7. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

Stocks have remained largely resilient in recent weeks despite reports of sticky inflation and risk that the Federal Reserve holds interest rates higher for longer than investors expect. Wall Street strategists believe that's likely due to a better-than-expected set of first quarter earnings.

Dohledové centrum

6. 5. 2024 - admin admin

V našem dohledovém centru monitorujeme chování obchodovacích algoritmů v reálném čase

Stock market today: Stocks surge as jobs report revives rate-cut bets, Apple jumps 6%

4. 5. 2024 - Josef Brynda

US stocks surged on Friday as upbeat earnings from Apple (AAPL) lifted spirits and a weaker-than-expected jobs report revived bets that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner than thought.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) jumped 1.2%, or about 450 points, while the S&P 500 (^GSPC) rose 1.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) increased 2%.

Nová posila do týmu

2. 5. 2024 - admin admin

V dubnu se do našeho týmu připojil Josef Brynda. Studuje ekonomiku a management se zaměřením na finanční analýzu na Mendelově univerzitě v Brně. Téma závěrečné práce je Vliv makroprostředí na ekonomickou výkonnost ve vybraných odvětvích. Josef bude především analyzovat ekonomické vlivy na vývoj trhu.