27. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
The US dollar remains at two-year highs against major currencies, supported by the strong performance of the economy and expectations for key GDP data. The newly announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and Europe may further strengthen the dollar as demand for safe-haven assets increases. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of India's planned USD swap auction could temporarily boost dollar liquidity. If today’s US GDP data exceeds expectations, we may see further gains for the USD.
The Canadian dollar is weakening due to the threat of US tariffs, which could harm the domestic economy. The Bank of Canada’s governor has warned that retaliatory measures could nearly erase economic growth in 2025–2026. Falling oil prices, reaching two-month lows, add additional pressure on the CAD. If the USD/CAD pair surpasses 1.4385, further appreciation towards 1.46–1.48 in the coming months is expected.
The euro faces pressure due to weak economic data from Germany, where GDP contracted by 0.2% in Q4 2024. Additionally, the threat of US tariffs on European goods is negatively impacting investor sentiment. On the other hand, rising money supply and credit activity suggest slight improvements in financial conditions. However, the European Central Bank is likely to cut interest rates further, which could weaken the euro. If EUR/USD breaks below the 1.0345 support level, further declines toward 1.0165 could follow.
The pound maintains some support from better-than-expected retail sales but remains under pressure due to potential further rate cuts by the Bank of England. The currency strengthened against the euro after the US announced tariffs on European imports, making the euro less attractive. On the stock market, the FTSE 100 performed better than other European indices despite a 0.3% decline on Thursday.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars remain under pressure, though NZD shows signs of slight recovery. The Australian dollar weakened due to an unexpected 0.2% decline in private capital expenditure in Q4, missing the expected 0.6% growth, while lower-than-expected inflation (2.5%) has fueled speculation about potential monetary easing. Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar is supported by improved business confidence and stronger commodity prices, though the recent 50 basis point rate cut by the RBNZ remains a bearish factor. While Australia's 10-year government bond yield rose above 4.4%, providing some support for AUD, the overall trend for both currencies remains weak against the USD. However, if economic conditions improve and global commodity markets strengthen, NZD could see a moderate recovery.
25. 2. 2025 - admin admin
Formulář pro daň z příjmu je k dispozici na tomto odkazu
Je možné zvolit měnu CZK nebo EUR
25. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
German elections
The German elections were won by the conservative CDU/CSU union with 28.52% of the vote. The far-right party AfD finished second with a record result of 20.8% and expressed its ambition to co-shape political developments in Germany. However, the winning party firmly rejected this possibility.
AfD, together with the left-wing party Die Linke, secured what is known as a blocking minority, which could enable them to obstruct CDU/CSU’s planned reforms on the debt brake and military modernization. This suggests that negotiations will be complex.
Following the election results, the euro initially strengthened against the dollar by up to 0.7% in anticipation of responsible fiscal policies. However, the subsequent weakening of the euro was likely caused by uncertainties surrounding coalition negotiations and the potential blocking minority formed by AfD and Die Linke.
Coalition talks are expected to take place primarily with the SPD, with whom the CDU/CSU collectively secured 328 seats out of 630. Merz, the incoming chancellor, is striving to expedite negotiations as much as possible to prevent political stagnation.
German economy
While elections took place in Germany, the country’s economy continues to struggle. According to the latest GDP data, economic output declined by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, confirming a second consecutive year of economic contraction. Forecasts for 2025 predict growth of just 0.3%, significantly lower than the initial estimates.
The main issues include an industrial slowdown, particularly due to high costs in the automotive sector, as well as the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has led to higher energy costs. Additionally, weak consumer confidence remains a challenge, as stagnating wages continue to impact the labor market.
24. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
Overall, it seems that the US dollar may not achieve the same success in the coming days as it did at the beginning of the year. However, from a fundamental perspective, the US economy remains in very good shape compared to other countries. Hard data indicate that the US continues to outperform other economies. The Federal Reserve has signaled, and the market expects, that interest rates will remain unchanged at the upcoming meeting, while other central banks are taking a more dovish stance. This interest rate differential between central banks should continue to attract investors to buy dollars, thereby increasing demand for the currency.
On a sentiment level, however, the market has recently perceived some previous threats, such as tariffs, as less significant. The results of the conservative party in Germany are seen as positive for the European market, mainly due to the winning party's program focused on debt reduction and conservative economic policies. This could limit further gains for the US dollar. As a result, the EUR/USD exchange rate is expected to move sideways, fluctuating between 1.05 and 1.03, with developments depending on various factors in both the Eurozone and the US. Key influences may include potential new trade tariffs, statements from the Fed and ECB, and the post-election negotiations in Germany. Any uncertainty surrounding the formation of a new government could negatively impact the euro.
Mixed inflation data from Canada indicate a slight increase in inflation to 1.9% in January, which remains below the Bank of Canada's inflation target of 2%. This development should continue to push the Canadian central bank towards a more accommodative monetary policy. The interest rate differential between Canada and the US stands at 1.5 percentage points, which is a relatively significant gap between these economies. The further development of the USD/CAD pair will depend on trade relations between Canada and the US, as well as on additional fundamental data from Canada.
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points last week but also signaled a cautious approach to further easing. This rhetoric likely helped strengthen the Australian dollar against the US dollar. Additionally, positive news from China contributed to a more optimistic outlook. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand reduced its key interest rate by 50 basis points last week, bringing it down to 3.75%. This move may have supported retail sales, pushing them to a three-year high, as lower financing costs have made consumer spending more affordable. That could lead to strenght the Kiwi currency.
The British pound benefited from strong fundamental data last week, including declining unemployment and stable inflation around 3%. This situation will likely force the Bank of England to keep interest rates at their current level. The economic gap between the UK and the Eurozone is significant at the moment, and the future outlook for the pound is expected to favor the UK.
17. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
Global currency markets are currently influenced by several key factors affecting volatility and exchange rates of major currencies. The US dollar faces uncertainty due to the threat of "reciprocal tariffs" and weak retail sales, which, combined with high household debt and declining consumption, weaken its position.
On the other hand, the higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S is forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain a more restrictive monetary policy and could lead to a pause in the planned rate-cutting cycle. The resilience of the U.S. economy is further supported by a strong labor market, which has remained at very favorable levels for an extended period.
From a global perspective, the U.S. economy continues to deliver really good performance, which may increase demand for the dollar and strengthen its value. Additionally, the interest rate differential between the U.S. and other key economies remains significant, providing further support for the dollar.
The eurozone faces the risk of rising government bond yields due to concerns over inflation and trade disputes, while economic growth has slowed to 0.9%. The European Central Bank is likely to continue its accommodative monetary policy even under neutral interest rates.
The Australian dollar will depend on the relationship between interest rates and inflation expectations following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) meeting. After the rate decision, it will be crucial to monitor the bank’s next steps and its commentary on the economic outlook.
The Australian dollar has recently strengthened, mainly due to the easing of U.S. tariff threats, increased Chinese government spending, and improved Chinese GDP growth. The future direction of AUD/USD will largely depend on the performance of the U.S. dollar, particularly in its role as a safe-haven asset. If Europe reaches an agreement with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, the USD could weaken against the AUD. However, apart from weak retail sales, U.S. economic data remains strong, particularly in the labor market and overall economic performance.
On February 19, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut interest rates. The key question is whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points. The Investing platform predicts a 25 bps reduction, but market speculation suggests an equal probability for both scenarios. If the RBNZ opts for a 50 bps cut, the NZD could weaken.
Given the current fundamental and sentiment-driven data, the AUD/NZD pair could see an upward trend. However, it will be essential to closely monitor the decisions of both central banks and their accompanying statements, as they could significantly influence market expectations and currency movements.
12. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
The latest inflation data for the USA has just been released. The actual figures were higher than expected, which led to a nearly 1% strengthening of the USD compared to today's local high. The data suggests that the Federal Reserve (FED) may continue tightening monetary policy, as accelerating inflation poses a risk to long-term price stability. At the same time, with the US imposing tariffs that create pro-inflationary pressures, the FED may not be in a hurry to take further action.
This trend could lead to parity between EUR and USD, which is no longer an entirely unrealistic target. Such a development could be disadvantageous for American exporters. Additionally, rising inflation could negatively impact US stock markets, which may report lower results this year due to the potential for stricter policies from the central bank. These conditions could limit opportunities for domestic companies, potentially driving investors towards safer assets.
Given these findings, it will be crucial to watch Jerome Powell’s speech today, as it may provide insight into the future direction of monetary policy, with expectations leaning towards a more hawkish tone.
Overall, both sentiment and fundamental analysis suggest that under these conditions, the USD should remain strong, while the stock market could be paralyzed by these data.
12. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
Powell described the U.S. economy as "generally strong," highlighting a robust labor market and stable GDP growth. However, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. In response, the chairman struck a more hawkish tone, which could weigh on potential stock market growth next year. As a result, capital is flowing into safe-haven assets, reflected in record-high gold prices and a strong U.S. dollar.
Today’s focus will be on Powell’s next speech, which will be heavily influenced by the latest inflation data set to be released. Higher-than-expected inflation could further reinforce his hawkish stance on delaying rate cuts.
11. 2. 2025 - Josef Brynda
USD
CAD
EUR
GBP
AUD
NZD
The US dollar remains strong, supported by rising Treasury yields and a weakening Chinese economy, while markets await Fed Chair Powell’s testimony and key CPI data. Trade tensions with Canada and geopolitical risks around Ukraine add volatility but favor USD strength in the short term.The Canadian dollar struggles due to stagnant oil prices and uncertainty over US-Canadian tariffs. Despite a strong labor market, broader economic concerns and a planned capital gains tax hike weigh on CAD, with potential for further depreciation.The euro faces volatility as Eurozone bond yields rise slightly, driven by market dynamics rather than rate hike expectations, as the ECB continues cutting rates. However, Germany’s slowing economy and political tensions related to US tariffs and Ukraine weigh on investor confidence, limiting euro upside potential. The British pound remains under pressure following a BoE rate cut, with further easing likely amid weak domestic demand and dovish signals from policymakers. Geopolitical risks and dovish sentiment from policymakers add to GBP's bearish outlook.The Australian dollar is weighed down by weak Chinese demand for resources, trade tensions, and recent RBA rate cuts. AUD/USD remains under pressure near key support levels, with risks skewed to the downside.The New Zealand dollar is similarly pressured by weak Chinese demand for dairy products and the potential for further RBNZ rate cuts as growth stagnates. Trade disputes between the US and China add to NZD's vulnerability.
Overall, USD strength is likely to dominate in the near term, while commodity-linked currencies (CAD, AUD, NZD) face downside risks. EUR and GBP remain vulnerable to economic and geopolitical uncertainties.